Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Switzerland v North Macedonia

2026-10-06 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Switzerland (Local)

Predicción 85.72%1.17momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -2.78%
Kelly -24.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
83.05%85.47%85.82%87.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.061.101.101.1394.34%90.66%90.91%88.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

North Macedonia (Visitante)

Predicción 4.06%24.61momio equitativo
EV +30.02%
Ventaja +0.938%
Kelly +0.968%
Crecimiento +0.291%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 32.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
2.96%4.21%4.04%5.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
15.0021.3720.2532.006.67%4.68%4.94%3.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 10.22%9.79momio equitativo
EV +4.21%
Ventaja +0.412%
Kelly +0.457%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.37%10.32%10.14%11.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.008.779.0010.2012.50%11.40%11.11%9.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Switzerland (Local): 85.72%; North Macedonia (Visitante): 4.06%; Empate: 10.22%. Para North Macedonia (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 24.61. 8 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 32.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +30.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.86%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.96%EV +30.02%E +0.938%K +0.968%G +0.291%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV -4.99%E -0.536%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 13:20
Betsson🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.86%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.96%EV +30.02%E +0.938%K +0.968%G +0.291%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV -4.99%E -0.536%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 13:20
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.18%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.34%EV +17.83%E +0.615%K +0.637%G +0.114%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.49%EV +4.21%E +0.412%K +0.457%G +0.019%3.3%2026-10-04 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.11%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.30%EV +17.83%E +0.615%K +0.637%G +0.114%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +2.16%E +0.216%K +0.240%G +0.005%4.4%2026-10-04 11:55
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.24%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.68%EV +5.64%E +0.217%K +0.226%G +0.013%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.08%EV -2.94%E -0.310%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 12:00
BetMGM🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.24%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.68%EV +5.64%E +0.217%K +0.226%G +0.013%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.08%EV -2.94%E -0.310%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 11:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.87%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +5.64%E +0.217%K +0.226%G +0.013%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:15
BoyleSports🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.46%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.62%EV +5.64%E +0.217%K +0.226%G +0.013%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV -2.94%E -0.310%K -0.346%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.83%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.14%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -2.94%E -0.310%K -0.346%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 12:00
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.35%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 12:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.35%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.35%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 12:10
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -13.16%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 12:10
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.92%EV -9.14%E -8.62%K -152.27%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-04 12:15
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.92%EV -9.14%E -8.62%K -152.27%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -6.55%E -0.285%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-04 12:15
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.14%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -14.68%E -0.699%K -0.734%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +2.16%E +0.216%K +0.240%G +0.005%6.5%2026-10-04 12:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -14.68%E -0.699%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:00
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -14.68%E -0.699%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:00
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -14.68%E -0.699%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.77%G +0.000%20.50I 4.88%NM 4.46%EV -16.71%E -0.815%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.88%EV -14.18%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:24
Bovada🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -18.74%E -0.937%K -0.986%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +2.16%E +0.216%K +0.240%G +0.005%6.7%2026-10-04 12:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.52%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.27%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -18.74%E -0.937%K -0.986%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.96%EV -15.72%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-04 12:19
ReBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.17%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.77%G +0.000%19.75I 5.06%NM 4.60%EV -19.75%E -1.00%K -1.05%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.22%EV -17.25%E -2.13%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 12:16
betfred_uk🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.35%EV -6.56%E -6.02%K -72.94%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -22.80%E -1.20%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -13.16%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 13:55
Suprabets🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.88%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.77%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -22.80%E -1.20%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.30%EV -9.07%E -1.02%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 12:16
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.17%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.08%EV -24.83%E -1.34%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 13:51
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
Casumo🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
Bally Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:51
Svenska Spel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 13:51
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.97%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.07%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -26.86%E -1.49%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -2.94%E -0.310%K -0.346%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.33%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.27%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.64%EV -34.99%E -2.19%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.03%EV -8.05%E -0.895%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 12:16
Winamax (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.11%EV -9.14%E -8.62%K -152.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.87%EV -39.05%E -2.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -18.27%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-04 12:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.25%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.79%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%1.4%2026-10-04 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.25%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.79%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%1.4%2026-10-04 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.25%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.79%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%1.4%2026-10-04 12:30