Language:English
Sweden v Romania
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sweden (Local)
Prediction 65.79%1.52fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.31%65.71%65.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.4873.53%70.32%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Romania (Visit)
Prediction 14.51%6.89fair odd
EV +8.82%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.120%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.97%14.65%14.40%16.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.416.507.5018.18%15.60%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.70%5.08fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.300%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 5.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.20%19.64%19.67%20.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.744.755.1422.73%21.09%21.05%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sweden (Local): 65.79%; Romania (Visit): 14.51%; Draw: 19.70%. For Romania (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.89. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV -1.52%E -0.303%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV -1.52%E -0.303%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -7.89%E -5.63%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV +1.56%E +0.223%K +0.260%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -9.40%E -2.04%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.59%EV -5.91%E -4.14%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -1.34%E -0.197%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.61%EV -10.38%E -2.28%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.59%EV -5.91%E -4.14%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -1.34%E -0.197%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.61%EV -10.38%E -2.28%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -2.07%E -0.306%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.44%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -2.07%E -0.306%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.44%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.30%EV -5.91%E -4.14%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.15%EV -2.79%E -0.417%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.55%EV -4.47%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-25 18:27 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.47%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.39%EV -3.52%E -0.529%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.14%EV -1.52%E -0.303%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -4.60%E -3.17%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -11.36%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 18:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.89%E -5.63%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -6.44%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.64%EV -7.23%E -5.13%K -17.63%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -9.40%E -2.04%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-25 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.89%E -5.63%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.40%E -2.04%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.89%E -5.63%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.36%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-25 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -10.52%E -7.73%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -5.69%E -0.876%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -13.33%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -9.32%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -4.47%E -0.922%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-25 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -9.20%E -6.67%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -9.32%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.36%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -9.20%E -6.67%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -9.32%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.36%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 18:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.76%EV -3.94%E -2.70%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.17I 16.21%NM 15.56%EV -10.48%E -1.70%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.68%EV +1.24%E +0.241%K +0.300%G +0.004% | 4.2% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.26%E -3.65%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -5.46%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 18:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -7.43%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-25 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.89%E -5.63%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -12.95%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -11.36%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.92%EV -5.91%E -4.14%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -20.20%E -3.67%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.20%EV +0.453%E +0.089%K +0.111%G +0.001% | 7.7% | 2026-09-25 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.84%EV -6.57%E -4.63%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -20.20%E -3.67%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -1.52%E -0.303%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-25 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 0.8% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 0.8% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 0.8% | 2026-09-25 18:40 |