Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Serbia v Greece

2026-09-24 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Serbia (Local)

Prediction 45.03%2.22fair odd
EV -0.924%
Edge -0.420%
Kelly -0.770%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.03%45.06%46.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.062.062.2051.55%48.44%48.54%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greece (Visit)

Prediction 27.06%3.69fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -0.988%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.04%27.12%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.423.453.6031.75%29.20%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -0.938%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%27.93%27.82%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.403.5032.26%29.91%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Serbia (Local): 45.03%; Greece (Visit): 27.06%; Draw: 27.90%. For Serbia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -0.924%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.15%EV -0.924%E -0.420%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.28%EV -3.65%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-02 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.44%EV -1.82%E -0.837%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.06%EV -3.11%E -0.869%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-02 11:45
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.68%EV -4.53%E -2.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 08:25
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.68%EV -4.53%E -2.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.43%E -2.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 12:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.43%E -2.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.43%E -2.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 12:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.43%E -2.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 12:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.43%E -2.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -13.51%E -4.36%K -6.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 12:30
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -6.33%E -3.04%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.69%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -9.32%E -2.87%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 11:45
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 17:24
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:24
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-25 06:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-25 06:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.23%E -3.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-25 06:59
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.68%E -3.75%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.57%E -0.714%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.34%E -0.670%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:14
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.68%E -3.75%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.28%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 01:12
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.68%E -3.75%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.68%E -3.75%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:24
Suprabets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.73%EV -7.68%E -3.75%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.89%EV -7.71%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.39%EV -9.88%E -3.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 08:42
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -8.58%E -4.23%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.28%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -3.74%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 01:14
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.93%E -4.97%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.28%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.13%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-29 01:14
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.93%E -4.97%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -10.69%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.32%E -2.87%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 09:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.97%EV -10.83%E -5.47%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.45%EV -12.67%E -4.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-02 11:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.50%EV -10.83%E -5.47%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -13.40%E -4.19%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -12.11%E -3.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-02 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.61%EV -12.63%E -6.51%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.47%EV -14.75%E -4.68%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -13.51%E -4.36%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-02 11:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.