The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Serbia v Greece

2026-09-24 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Serbia (Local)

Prediction 45.28%2.21fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.65%45.28%45.12%46.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.052.1550.51%48.31%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greece (Visit)

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.312%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.98%26.42%26.45%26.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.613.553.8328.57%27.69%28.17%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.30%3.53fair odd
EV -0.948%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.379%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%28.30%28.43%29.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.383.5032.26%29.79%29.59%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Serbia (Local): 45.28%; Greece (Visit): 26.42%; Draw: 28.30%. For Greece (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.83, producing a positive expected value of +1.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Suprabets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.39%EV -10.35%E -5.23%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.98%EV +1.20%E +0.312%K +0.423%G +0.005%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -12.27%E -3.96%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 14:07
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.49%EV -3.56%E -1.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%EV -0.918%E -0.245%K -0.334%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -4.34%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 14:49
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.17%EV -2.65%E -1.23%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.10%EV -1.71%E -0.460%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -4.34%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 14:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.18%E -3.50%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -0.948%E -0.271%K -0.379%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:14
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.01%E -1.89%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -6.20%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.61%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 19:59
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.01%E -1.89%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -6.20%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.61%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 20:00
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.18%E -3.50%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.78%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 01:12
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -8.09%E -3.98%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -2.36%E -0.685%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 01:14
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.44%E -4.72%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.78%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-29 01:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.