Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Marino v Finland

2026-09-26 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Marino (Local)

Prediction 2.78%36.00fair odd
EV +13.90%
Edge +0.339%
Kelly +0.348%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.36%2.91%2.78%3.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
25.0028.4725.0041.004.00%3.51%4.00%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Finland (Visit)

Prediction 88.00%1.14fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -45.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.86%87.20%88.00%88.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.0995.24%92.99%92.59%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.22%10.84fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.131%
Kelly +0.145%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.58%9.89%9.22%12.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.6610.0011.0013.33%10.35%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Marino (Local): 2.78%; Finland (Visit): 88.00%; Draw: 9.22%. For San Marino (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 36.00. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 41.00, producing a positive expected value of +13.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.36%EV +13.90%E +0.339%K +0.348%G +0.048%1.09I 91.74%NM 88.65%EV -4.08%E -3.74%K -45.34%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.99%EV -0.860%E -0.080%K -0.088%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-20 23:14
FanDuel🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV -5.54%E -0.163%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.43%EV -7.60%E -7.24%K -152.01%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -3.17%E -0.301%K -0.333%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 20:39
Betsson🎯33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV -8.32%E -0.252%K -0.260%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -4.08%E -3.74%K -45.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -30.83%E -4.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-20 21:30
NordicBet🎯33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV -8.32%E -0.252%K -0.260%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -4.08%E -3.74%K -45.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -30.83%E -4.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-20 21:29
Paddy Power🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV -13.88%E -0.448%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.81%EV -7.60%E -7.24%K -152.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-20 20:39
1xBet🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV -19.44%E -0.670%K -0.694%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.17%EV -5.84%E -5.46%K -83.44%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +1.45%E +0.131%K +0.145%G +0.002%6.0%2026-08-20 21:11
Suprabets🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -27.77%E -1.07%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.90%EV -5.84%E -5.46%K -83.44%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.56%EV -19.77%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-20 20:40
Unibet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
BetRivers🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -62.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.78%E -0.778%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.70%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -5.84%E -5.46%K -83.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -12.39%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.70%EV -30.55%E -1.22%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -5.84%E -5.46%K -83.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -12.39%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%1.07I 93.46%NM 33.75%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%176.9%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%1.07I 93.46%NM 33.75%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%176.9%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 33.32%1.05I 95.24%NM 32.69%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.98%191.3%2026-08-20 20:39

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