The School of Odds
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San Marino v Finland

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:01 UTC

Final: San Marino 0–7 Finland

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Marino (Local)

Prediction 2.58%38.77fair odd
EV +41.84%
Edge +0.761%
Kelly +0.775%
Growth +0.324%

assuming max odds 55.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.69%2.62%2.62%3.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
24.0034.1731.0055.004.17%2.93%3.23%1.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Finland (Visit)

Prediction 89.34%1.12fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -43.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.39%88.88%89.46%89.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.061.0899.01%94.90%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.08%12.37fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +0.389%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.33%8.50%7.92%11.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.2511.1111.5013.0013.79%9.00%8.70%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Marino (Local): 2.58%; Finland (Visit): 89.34%; Draw: 8.08%. For San Marino (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 38.77. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 55.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯55.00I 1.82%NM 1.69%EV +41.84%E +0.761%K +0.775%G +0.324%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.71%EV -4.41%E -4.12%K -62.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -35.35%E -4.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 15:50
NordicBet🎯55.00I 1.82%NM 1.69%EV +41.84%E +0.761%K +0.775%G +0.324%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.71%EV -4.41%E -4.12%K -62.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -35.35%E -4.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 15:50
1xBet🎯52.00I 1.92%NM 1.83%EV +34.11%E +0.656%K +0.669%G +0.228%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.09%EV -4.41%E -4.12%K -62.95%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV -15.15%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.09%EV +18.63%E +0.405%K +0.414%G +0.077%1.08I 92.59%NM 89.15%EV -3.51%E -3.25%K -43.91%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.75%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 16:00
William Hill🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +18.63%E +0.405%K +0.414%G +0.077%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.33%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 15:55
DraftKings🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +5.74%E +0.140%K +0.143%G +0.008%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.75%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 16:00
Suprabets🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +5.74%E +0.140%K +0.143%G +0.008%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.11%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 15:47
FanDuel🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.61%EV -7.16%E -0.199%K -0.204%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.19%E -5.90%K -123.87%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 15:49
Coral🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.83%EV -12.31%E -0.362%K -0.373%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.78%EV -4.41%E -4.12%K -62.95%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV +5.06%E +0.389%K +0.421%G +0.021%4.1%2026-09-26 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.81%EV -12.31%E -0.362%K -0.373%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.23%EV -4.41%E -4.12%K -62.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.96%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.80%EV -12.31%E -0.362%K -0.373%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +5.06%E +0.389%K +0.421%G +0.021%5.0%2026-09-26 16:00
BoyleSports🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -12.31%E -0.362%K -0.373%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.32%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 15:59
Unibet🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.06%EV -20.05%E -0.647%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.37%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +1.02%E +0.081%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.6%2026-09-26 15:55
BetRivers🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.06%EV -20.05%E -0.647%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.37%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +1.02%E +0.081%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.6%2026-09-26 15:55
Casumo🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.06%EV -20.05%E -0.647%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.37%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +1.02%E +0.081%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.6%2026-09-26 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.06%EV -20.05%E -0.647%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.37%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +1.02%E +0.081%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.6%2026-09-26 15:55
Paddy Power🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV -20.05%E -0.647%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.65%EV -7.09%E -6.81%K -177.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯30.00I 3.33%NM 3.05%EV -22.63%E -0.754%K -0.780%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 88.98%EV -7.98%E -7.75%K -266.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.97%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.673%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯30.00I 3.33%NM 3.05%EV -22.63%E -0.754%K -0.780%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 88.98%EV -7.98%E -7.75%K -266.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.97%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.673%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 16:00
LeoVegas🎯30.00I 3.33%NM 3.03%EV -22.63%E -0.754%K -0.780%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.40%EV -7.09%E -6.81%K -177.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -23.23%E -2.44%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯30.00I 3.33%NM 2.99%EV -22.63%E -0.754%K -0.780%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 88.85%EV -9.77%E -9.67%K -976.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-26 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.23%EV -25.21%E -0.869%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 15:25
Neds🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.23%EV -25.21%E -0.869%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -11.11%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 15:25
TAB🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV -32.95%E -1.27%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -3.51%E -3.25%K -43.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -19.19%E -1.92%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV -32.95%E -1.27%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -7.09%E -6.81%K -177.17%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 16:00
betfred_uk🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -32.95%E -1.27%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.78%EV -5.30%E -5.00%K -88.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -23.23%E -2.44%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:50
Bovada🎯24.00I 4.17%NM 3.80%EV -38.10%E -1.59%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 88.59%EV -7.98%E -7.75%K -266.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.60%EV -3.02%E -0.252%K -0.275%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-26 15:58
Winamax (FR)🎯24.00I 4.17%NM 3.79%EV -38.10%E -1.59%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 88.30%EV -7.98%E -7.75%K -266.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.673%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-26 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯24.00I 4.17%NM 3.62%EV -38.10%E -1.59%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.98%E -7.75%K -266.00%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.99%EV -41.41%E -5.71%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-26 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎60.00I 1.67%NM 1.67%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.67%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.66%0.1%2026-09-26 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.99%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.37%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%0.4%2026-09-26 15:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.99%1.09I 91.74%NM 91.37%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%0.4%2026-09-26 15:40