Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Marino v Finland

2026-09-26 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Marino (Local)

Prediction 3.08%32.44fair odd
EV +17.14%
Edge +0.451%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 38.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.56%3.11%3.04%5.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0026.9525.0038.005.88%3.71%4.00%2.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Finland (Visit)

Prediction 86.48%1.16fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -36.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.66%86.31%87.04%88.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.081.1196.15%93.20%93.02%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.44%9.58fair odd
EV +14.79%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.219%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.58%10.58%9.92%12.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.099.5011.0014.29%11.00%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Marino (Local): 3.08%; Finland (Visit): 86.48%; Draw: 10.44%. For San Marino (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 32.44. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 38.00, producing a positive expected value of +17.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV -10.60%E -0.366%K -0.379%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.17%EV -7.46%E -6.98%K -106.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +14.79%E +1.34%K +1.48%G +0.219%6.0%2026-08-26 06:49
Unibet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
BetRivers🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -6.60%E -6.11%K -82.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.35%E +0.435%K +0.484%G +0.021%6.6%2026-08-20 20:39
Marathon Bet🎯38.00I 2.63%NM 2.56%EV +17.14%E +0.451%K +0.463%G +0.079%1.11I 90.09%NM 87.62%EV -4.01%E -3.61%K -36.41%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.82%EV +3.31%E +0.334%K +0.372%G +0.012%2.8%2026-09-09 17:25
BoyleSports🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.26%EV -10.60%E -0.366%K -0.379%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.78%EV -5.73%E -5.26%K -63.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -0.864%E -0.091%K -0.102%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 08:29
LiveScore Bet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.70%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -7.46%E -6.98%K -106.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -0.864%E -0.091%K -0.102%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.70%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -7.46%E -6.98%K -106.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -0.864%E -0.091%K -0.102%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 20:40
FanDuel🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +4.81%E +0.142%K +0.146%G +0.007%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.61%EV -9.19%E -8.76%K -183.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -0.864%E -0.091%K -0.102%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 15:53
Paddy Power🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.96%EV -4.44%E -0.143%K -0.148%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.38%EV -9.19%E -8.76%K -183.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -0.864%E -0.091%K -0.102%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 15:53
LeoVegas🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -19.85%E -0.763%K -0.794%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.69%EV -7.46%E -6.98%K -106.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -11.30%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 00:05
Suprabets🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.51%EV -19.85%E -0.763%K -0.794%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.35%EV -7.46%E -6.98%K -106.63%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.14%EV -14.43%E -1.76%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 13:38
Betsson🎯33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV +1.73%E +0.052%K +0.054%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -5.73%E -5.26%K -63.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -21.73%E -2.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 16:40
NordicBet🎯33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV +1.73%E +0.052%K +0.054%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -5.73%E -5.26%K -63.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -21.73%E -2.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 16:39
Winamax (DE)🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 4.87%EV -44.51%E -2.47%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 83.45%EV -9.19%E -8.76%K -183.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.68%EV -21.73%E -2.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-24 14:49
Betclic (FR)🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.57%EV -22.93%E -0.917%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.13%EV -8.33%E -7.86%K -138.82%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.30%EV -24.34%E -3.36%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-24 12:14
Winamax (FR)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.06%EV -47.59%E -2.80%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 82.66%EV -10.06%E -9.67%K -251.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.28%EV -26.95%E -3.85%K -4.49%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-24 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 33.10%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.48%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.41%187.7%2026-09-09 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 33.10%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.48%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.41%187.7%2026-09-09 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 33.10%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.48%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.41%187.7%2026-09-09 12:41