Language:English
Portugal v Wales
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Portugal (Local)
Prediction 82.31%1.21fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -15.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.12%82.17%82.42%84.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1890.09%87.15%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wales (Visit)
Prediction 5.86%17.06fair odd
EV +23.07%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.266%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.66%5.88%5.82%7.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5016.0016.0021.008.00%6.25%6.25%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 11.83%8.45fair odd
EV +6.48%
Edge +0.720%
Kelly +0.810%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.88%11.95%11.76%13.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.888.009.0014.29%12.69%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 82.31%; Wales (Visit): 5.86%; Draw: 11.83%. For Wales (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.06. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.66%EV +23.07%E +1.10%K +1.15%G +0.266% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.88%EV +6.48%E +0.720%K +0.810%G +0.052% | 2.1% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.66%EV +23.07%E +1.10%K +1.15%G +0.266% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.88%EV +6.48%E +0.720%K +0.810%G +0.052% | 2.1% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.51%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +11.35%E +0.597%K +0.630%G +0.072% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +0.561%E +0.066%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-24 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.98%EV -7.81%E -6.98%K -65.12%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +11.35%E +0.597%K +0.630%G +0.072% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +0.561%E +0.066%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +5.49%E +0.305%K +0.323%G +0.018% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -16.00%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-24 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +5.49%E +0.305%K +0.323%G +0.018% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -16.00%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-24 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV +5.49%E +0.305%K +0.323%G +0.018% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV +5.49%E +0.305%K +0.323%G +0.018% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.91%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.54%EV +2.56%E +0.146%K +0.155%G +0.004% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.55%EV -0.622%E -0.074%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.77%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.70%EV -0.373%E -0.022%K -0.023%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.53%EV -0.622%E -0.074%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-24 18:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -5.34%E -4.65%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -0.373%E -0.022%K -0.023%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-24 16:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.04%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.26%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.53%EV -0.373%E -0.022%K -0.023%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -17.18%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.80%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -0.373%E -0.022%K -0.023%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -6.23%E -0.390%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -7.81%E -6.98%K -65.12%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -6.23%E -0.390%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV -6.23%E -0.390%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-24 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.14%EV -8.64%E -7.78%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -6.23%E -0.390%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.14%EV -8.64%E -7.78%K -78.52%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -6.23%E -0.390%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-24 18:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -5.34%E -4.65%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -12.09%E -0.806%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-24 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.63%EV -5.34%E -4.65%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -12.09%E -0.806%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -8.31%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-24 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -12.09%E -0.806%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.06%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -12.09%E -0.806%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-24 17:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -5.34%E -4.65%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -12.09%E -0.806%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -17.18%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-24 14:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.50%EV -6.17%E -5.41%K -44.06%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.88%EV -20.88%E -1.55%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-24 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -2.88%E -2.44%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -23.81%E -1.83%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-24 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -23.81%E -1.83%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-24 17:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -2.88%E -2.44%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -23.81%E -1.83%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-24 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.34%E -4.65%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -23.81%E -1.83%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.27%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-24 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.42%EV -6.99%E -6.19%K -53.78%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -23.81%E -1.83%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -5.35%E -0.669%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-24 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.35%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -26.74%E -2.14%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -8.31%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-24 17:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.35%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -26.74%E -2.14%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -8.31%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-24 17:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.74% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.83% | 0.4% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.74% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.83% | 0.4% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.74% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.83% | 0.4% | 2026-09-24 18:30 |