The School of Odds
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Poland v Romania

2026-10-02 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland (Local)

Prediction 58.86%1.70fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -6.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.85%58.90%58.88%60.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.561.6366.67%63.78%63.90%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Romania (Visit)

Prediction 17.60%5.68fair odd
EV -0.379%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.081%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%17.58%17.59%18.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.245.255.6621.28%19.07%19.05%17.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.359%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.52%23.53%24.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.953.954.2026.67%25.33%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Poland (Local): 58.86%; Romania (Visit): 17.60%; Draw: 23.54%. For Romania (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.66, with an expected value of -0.379%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.50%EV -4.05%E -2.49%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 17.13%EV -0.379%E -0.067%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.37%EV -2.33%E -0.560%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-29 12:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.51%EV -4.64%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.51%EV -4.64%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.51%EV -4.64%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%EV -1.15%E -0.273%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.52%EV -5.23%E -3.25%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.11%EV -1.43%E -0.256%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV -3.50%E -0.854%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-29 12:40
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.50%E -0.854%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 12:44
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.50%E -0.854%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 12:45
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.50%E -0.854%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 09:00
LeoVegas🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -7.00%E -4.43%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -8.47%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-29 10:45
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -7.00%E -4.43%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 12:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.13%EV -7.00%E -4.43%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-29 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.64%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.64%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 12:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-29 12:39
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-29 12:40
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.92%EV -8.17%E -5.24%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.21%E -2.10%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-29 12:15
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.80%EV -8.17%E -5.24%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-29 12:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.23%EV -8.17%E -5.24%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-29 12:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.23%EV -8.17%E -5.24%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-29 12:45
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 12:05
Suprabets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.22%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -4.95%E -0.918%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.78%EV -9.15%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-29 12:07
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-29 12:10
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.72%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.72%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -7.59%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 12:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.53%EV -8.76%E -5.65%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.69%EV -9.86%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-29 10:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.11%EV -9.35%E -6.07%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -15.52%E -3.23%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-29 10:45
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -9.94%E -6.50%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 12:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.85%EV -10.53%E -6.93%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -17.28%E -3.68%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.45%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-29 10:45
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.53%EV -11.12%E -7.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-29 12:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.63%EV -11.12%E -7.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.07%EV -13.76%E -2.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-29 12:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -11.71%E -7.80%K -23.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -3.19%E -0.581%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-29 12:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%11.7%2026-09-29 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%11.7%2026-09-29 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%11.7%2026-09-29 12:40