The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hungary v Northern Ireland

2026-11-17 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hungary (Local)

Prediction 49.63%2.01fair odd
EV -5.21%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -5.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.61%49.70%49.59%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.861.851.9157.47%53.85%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Ireland (Visit)

Prediction 22.24%4.50fair odd
EV +6.74%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.76%22.19%21.80%24.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.274.404.8027.78%23.40%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.13%3.55fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.660%
Kelly +0.911%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.75%28.11%28.62%30.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.253.6433.33%30.57%30.77%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hungary (Local): 49.63%; Northern Ireland (Visit): 22.24%; Draw: 28.13%. For Northern Ireland (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.80, producing a positive expected value of +6.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.65%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV +6.74%E +1.41%K +1.77%G +0.120%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-13 22:28
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-13 15:16
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.073%E +0.016%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:40
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.57%EV -6.70%E -3.56%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.79%EV -1.04%E -0.233%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.64%EV +2.40%E +0.660%K +0.911%G +0.022%3.1%2026-11-13 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -7.69%E -4.13%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -2.15%E -0.489%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.64%EV +1.28%E +0.355%K +0.492%G +0.006%4.3%2026-11-13 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -2.15%E -0.489%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 15:15
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -2.15%E -0.489%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 15:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -2.15%E -0.489%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 15:15
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.72%EV -6.20%E -3.28%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -2.15%E -0.489%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-13 15:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -3.71%E -0.856%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-13 22:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -3.71%E -0.856%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-13 22:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -3.71%E -0.856%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-13 22:19
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-13 16:29
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-13 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-13 23:15
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -15.60%E -5.20%K -7.80%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-13 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.38%EV -13.65%E -7.84%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -14.19%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-13 15:15
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.60%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -8.82%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.62%EV -12.23%E -3.92%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-14 00:39
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.60%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -8.82%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.62%EV -12.23%E -3.92%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-14 00:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -5.71%E -3.00%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -11.05%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 15:20
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -6.70%E -3.56%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.16%E -3.08%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-13 22:15
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.19%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -13.27%E -3.40%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 15:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.26%EV -7.69%E -4.13%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -14.38%E -3.74%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-13 15:16
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.85%EV -7.69%E -4.13%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -15.49%E -4.08%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV +1.28%E +0.355%K +0.492%G +0.006%7.9%2026-11-13 15:15
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.16%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -15.49%E -4.08%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.91%EV -4.91%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.59%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.61%EV -15.94%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.80%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-13 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -19.94%E -5.54%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-13 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 33.33%1.13I 88.50%NM 33.63%1.15I 86.96%NM 33.04%163.2%2026-11-13 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 33.33%1.13I 88.50%NM 33.63%1.15I 86.96%NM 33.04%163.2%2026-11-13 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 33.33%1.13I 88.50%NM 33.63%1.15I 86.96%NM 33.04%163.2%2026-11-13 23:05