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Bulgaria v Luxembourg

2026-09-26 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bulgaria (Local)

Prediction 50.18%1.99fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.26%50.11%50.13%50.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.851.881.9558.14%54.11%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luxembourg (Visit)

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.296%
Kelly -0.380%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.97%21.72%21.74%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.194.154.5525.32%23.87%24.10%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.48%28.17%28.13%28.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.333.4232.26%30.38%30.08%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bulgaria (Local): 50.18%; Luxembourg (Visit): 21.68%; Draw: 28.14%. For Luxembourg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.55, with an expected value of -1.35%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.91%EV -2.16%E -1.11%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV -2.43%E -0.541%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.46%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-09 16:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -3.16%E -1.64%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.33%EV -1.35%E -0.296%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.38%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 16:45
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.38%EV -5.17%E -2.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:40
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.11%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.72%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 20:39
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.26%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.26%EV -5.67%E -3.02%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 22:45
Suprabets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.18%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -6.12%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.48%EV -9.10%E -2.82%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 13:38
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.18%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.54%E -2.63%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 21:55
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -7.13%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 16:05
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.13%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:05
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -8.54%E -2.63%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-20 20:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.92%EV -12.19%E -6.97%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.97%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.11%EV -10.79%E -3.40%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 08:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.54%EV -12.69%E -7.30%K -17.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-24 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.24%EV -13.70%E -7.96%K -19.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -14.36%E -3.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -12.76%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-24 09:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 35.05%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%182.5%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 35.05%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%182.5%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 35.05%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.48%182.5%2026-08-29 22:45