Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Belarus v Finland

2026-10-06 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Belarus (Local)

Predicción 27.01%3.70momio equitativo
EV -0.067%
Ventaja -0.018%
Kelly -0.025%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.19%26.93%27.06%28.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.483.463.7030.77%28.74%28.86%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Finland (Visitante)

Predicción 45.54%2.20momio equitativo
EV -2.55%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.41%45.51%45.52%47.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.942.012.022.1451.55%49.68%49.50%46.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.45%3.64momio equitativo
EV -2.81%
Ventaja -0.794%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%27.56%27.42%29.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.123.383.403.5432.05%29.58%29.41%28.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Belarus (Local): 27.01%; Finland (Visitante): 45.54%; Empate: 27.45%. Para Belarus (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.702. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.700, con un valor esperado de -0.067%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.67%EV -10.75%E -5.48%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.67%EV -10.75%E -5.48%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.67%EV -10.75%E -5.48%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 13:16
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:16
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:15
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:15
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:15
Bally Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.067%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:16
1xBet🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 27.25%EV -3.85%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.34%EV -2.55%E -1.19%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.41%EV -2.81%E -0.794%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-04 12:29
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.12%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -9.84%E -4.97%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 17:40
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.12%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -9.84%E -4.97%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.22%EV -4.93%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.41%EV -3.92%E -1.86%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 12:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:29
theScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 12:31
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.93%E -4.46%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 14:30
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -14.34%E -4.60%K -6.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 17:30
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -14.34%E -4.60%K -6.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 17:30
ReBet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.58%EV -6.01%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.56%EV -7.56%E -3.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.86%EV -8.85%E -2.67%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.30%EV -6.01%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.22%EV -9.84%E -4.97%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.48%EV -8.57%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 18:50
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.82%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:30
MyBookie.ag🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 26.70%EV -7.09%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.47%EV -8.02%E -3.97%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 12:29
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:30
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:30
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 14:45
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:31
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:30
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.93%E -4.46%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 12:30
BetUS🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.93%E -4.46%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-04 15:55
Fliff🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.61%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.39%EV -11.20%E -5.75%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-04 15:30
Suprabets🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.24%EV -8.98%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.44%EV -8.02%E -3.97%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.32%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 12:31
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:30
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.93%E -4.46%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-04 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -9.84%E -4.97%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-04 12:29
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -12.22%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -12.22%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.58%EV -11.66%E -6.01%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-04 12:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%6.2%2026-10-04 19:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%6.2%2026-10-04 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%6.2%2026-10-04 19:35