Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart v Celtic

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 71.72%1.39fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.743%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.82%71.67%71.71%73.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.311.3878.74%76.08%76.34%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celtic (Visit)

Prediction 12.17%8.22fair odd
EV +7.12%
Edge +0.809%
Kelly +0.912%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.92%12.16%12.17%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.757.608.8015.38%12.90%13.16%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.11%6.21fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +0.309%
Kelly +0.367%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.06%16.17%16.11%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.795.756.3318.18%17.26%17.39%15.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 71.72%; Celtic (Visit): 12.17%; Draw: 16.11%. For Celtic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.22. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.33%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.92%EV +7.12%E +0.809%K +0.912%G +0.065%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -1.75%E -0.287%K -0.343%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.26%EV -3.18%E -2.35%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.48%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-26 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.26%EV -3.18%E -2.35%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.48%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-26 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.26%EV -3.18%E -2.35%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.48%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-26 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.41%EV -3.89%E -2.91%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.42%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.17%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-26 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +3.47%E +0.408%K +0.462%G +0.016%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 17:24
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.49%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -0.430%E -0.053%K -0.060%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.73%EV -1.26%E -0.206%K -0.247%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 17:35
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.96%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.82%EV -1.40%E -0.173%K -0.198%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.22%EV -4.97%E -0.842%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 17:28
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.20%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 17:00
Suprabets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.16%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.02%EV -4.97%E -0.842%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 17:37
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-26 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 17:19
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.07%EV -6.58%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-26 17:30
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 17:30
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.80%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.374%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.80%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.83%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.25%EV -5.06%E -0.648%K -0.743%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -5.66%E -0.731%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.96%EV -4.97%E -0.842%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 17:20
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.92%EV -1.03%E -0.743%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.70%EV -7.49%E -0.986%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.39%EV -10.61%E -1.91%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 17:10
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.92%EV -1.03%E -0.743%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.70%EV -7.49%E -0.986%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.39%EV -10.61%E -1.91%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 17:10
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.18%E -2.35%K -9.08%G +0.000%7.59I 13.18%NM 12.79%EV -7.61%E -1.00%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.33%EV +1.96%E +0.309%K +0.367%G +0.007%3.0%2026-02-26 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.83%EV -2.46%E -1.81%K -6.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.33%EV -4.97%E -0.842%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-26 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.83%EV -2.46%E -1.81%K -6.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.33%EV -4.97%E -0.842%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-26 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.39%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +0.668%E +0.107%K +0.127%G +0.001%6.3%2026-02-26 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 17:00
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:30
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 17:35
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 17:38
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:39
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.26%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:30
Fliff🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.07%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.56%EV -11.14%E -1.53%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.80%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 17:40
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.01%EV -3.89%E -2.91%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.13%EV -11.75%E -1.62%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.79%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -11.75%E -1.62%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-26 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.01%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -11.75%E -1.62%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -9.80%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 17:39
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.36%E -0.560%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 16:40
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.52%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.39%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 16:45
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.48%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-26 16:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.44%EV -6.05%E -4.62%K -19.50%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.37%EV -16.01%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -8.19%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.65%EV -17.23%E -2.53%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -6.58%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 16:40
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.65%EV -17.23%E -2.53%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -6.58%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 16:40
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -3.18%E -2.35%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -20.88%E -3.21%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -11.41%E -2.07%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.38I 72.46%NM 72.11%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58%0.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 72.11%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58%0.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 72.11%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58%0.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.07%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-02-26 17:40
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.21%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.42%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37%1.8%2026-02-26 17:40