Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.25
assuming max odds 3.65
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 43.34%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 26.81%; Draw: 29.84%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.63%EV -2.48%E -1.10%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.73%EV -3.35%E -1.50%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.72%EV -2.13%E -0.584%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55%EV -1.52%E -0.460%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.73%EV -3.35%E -1.50%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.72%EV -2.13%E -0.584%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55%EV -1.52%E -0.460%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.73%EV -3.35%E -1.50%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.72%EV -2.13%E -0.584%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55%EV -1.52%E -0.460%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -3.35%E -1.50%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.53%EV -2.40%E -0.659%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.17%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.50%EV -3.78%E -1.70%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.60%EV -2.67%E -0.735%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.90%EV -3.61%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.50%EV -3.78%E -1.70%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.60%EV -2.67%E -0.735%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.90%EV -3.61%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.75%EV -4.21%E -1.91%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -2.13%E -0.584%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.75%EV -3.01%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.55%EV -4.21%E -1.91%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.71%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.13%E -0.584%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.52%E -0.460%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV -3.01%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.19%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.67%EV -6.69%E -1.92%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -11.07%E -3.71%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.45%EV -5.08%E -2.32%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.08%E -2.32%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.47%EV -4.01%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.27%EV -6.59%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.47%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -10.17%E -3.04%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -1.52%E -0.460%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -6.81%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -7.25%E -3.39%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -7.25%E -3.39%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -8.11%E -3.83%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.11%E -3.83%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.11%E -3.83%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.98%E -4.28%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -3.01%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -8.98%E -4.28%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -10.17%E -3.04%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -3.01%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.98%E -4.28%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -8.98%E -4.28%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.07% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.65% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.28% | 0.1% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-04-09 19:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13% | 3.1% | 2026-04-09 19:00 |