Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Red Star Belgrade v Lille

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Red Star Belgrade (Local)

Prediction 32.03%3.12fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.761%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.03%32.01%33.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.922.923.0535.71%34.22%34.19%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lille (Visit)

Prediction 40.85%2.45fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.09%40.86%40.81%41.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4045.45%43.45%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV +2.55%
Edge +0.674%
Kelly +0.917%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.66%27.11%27.18%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.503.7830.30%28.58%28.57%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Red Star Belgrade (Local): 32.03%; Lille (Visit): 40.85%; Draw: 27.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.92%EV -8.41%E -2.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.42%EV -1.97%E -0.821%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.66%EV +2.55%E +0.674%K +0.917%G +0.023%3.1%2026-02-26 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.44%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.66%EV -0.979%E -0.268%K -0.369%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-26 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.44%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.66%EV -0.979%E -0.268%K -0.369%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-26 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.44%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.66%EV -0.979%E -0.268%K -0.369%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-26 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.979%E -0.268%K -0.369%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-26 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.80%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -0.979%E -0.268%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 17:25
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.76%EV -2.32%E -0.761%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.40%EV -4.42%E -1.89%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.84%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-26 17:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -1.97%E -0.821%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-26 17:39
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.80%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 17:25
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.80%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.80%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -1.97%E -0.821%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-26 16:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -1.97%E -0.821%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-26 16:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.898%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:30
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 17:30
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 17:30
Bally Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 17:30
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 17:30
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 17:20
Suprabets🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.00%EV -5.20%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.83%EV -4.23%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-26 17:37
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.82%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.30%EV -4.51%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 17:35
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.74%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 15:30
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.74%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 17:00
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 17:20
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 17:30
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.36%EV -7.28%E -3.21%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 17:40
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.36%EV -7.28%E -3.21%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 17:34
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.87%E -3.01%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:30
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.87%E -3.01%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:30
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -6.87%E -3.01%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 15:54
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 17:25
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.78%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.58%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV -6.40%E -1.86%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 17:00
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.21%EV -3.20%E -1.35%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 17:10
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.80%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.61%EV -5.65%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:00
Caesars🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 17:24
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 17:10
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 17:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-26 17:39
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-26 17:25
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-26 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-26 17:30
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-26 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-26 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-26 17:30
Fliff🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-26 17:35
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 16:50
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-02-26 17:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-02-26 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-02-26 17:40
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-02-26 17:35
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.5%2026-02-26 17:35