Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec

Início: 2026-10-15 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Previsão 75.38%1.33odd justa
EV -2.76%
Vantagem -2.14%
Kelly -9.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
72.56%75.32%75.43%79.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.171.231.231.2985.47%81.29%80.97%77.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FK Jablonec (Visitante)

Previsão 8.29%12.06odd justa
EV +16.04%
Vantagem +1.15%
Kelly +1.23%
Crescimento +0.198%

pressupondo odds máximas de 14.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
6.74%8.30%8.36%9.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
9.0011.5912.0014.0011.11%8.63%8.33%7.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 16.33%6.12odd justa
EV +10.25%
Vantagem +1.52%
Kelly +1.78%
Crescimento +0.183%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.98%16.38%16.20%18.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.905.725.756.7520.41%17.49%17.41%14.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: SC Freiburg (Local): 75.38%; FK Jablonec (Visitante): 8.29%; Empate: 16.33%. Para FK Jablonec (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 12.06. 11 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 14.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +16.04%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.28%EV -10.30%E -8.66%K -54.21%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +16.04%E +1.15%K +1.23%G +0.198%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.98%EV +10.25%E +1.52%K +1.78%G +0.183%6.0%2026-10-15 18:50
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.28%EV -10.30%E -8.66%K -54.21%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +16.04%E +1.15%K +1.23%G +0.198%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.98%EV +10.25%E +1.52%K +1.78%G +0.183%6.0%2026-10-15 18:50
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.33%EV -5.02%E -3.99%K -19.32%G +0.000%13.90I 7.19%NM 6.83%EV +15.22%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.179%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.84%EV -13.11%E -2.46%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.52%EV -5.02%E -3.99%K -19.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.42%EV +7.76%E +0.597%K +0.646%G +0.050%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.07%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 18:09
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.54%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.64%EV -7.28%E -5.92%K -31.67%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 18:10
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -9.55%E -7.96%K -47.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -6.90%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -9.55%E -7.96%K -47.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -6.90%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.08%EV -11.81%E -10.09%K -69.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV +2.08%E +0.333%K +0.396%G +0.008%9.5%2026-10-15 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.08%EV -11.81%E -10.09%K -69.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV +2.08%E +0.333%K +0.396%G +0.008%9.5%2026-10-15 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.08%EV -11.81%E -10.09%K -69.46%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV +3.61%E +0.289%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV +2.08%E +0.333%K +0.396%G +0.008%9.5%2026-10-15 18:50
ReBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.63%EV -5.02%E -3.99%K -19.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.33%EV +2.90%E +0.460%K +0.547%G +0.016%3.6%2026-10-15 18:14
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.96%EV -7.28%E -5.92%K -31.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 18:10
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:09
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:08
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.41%EV -7.28%E -5.92%K -31.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 18:10
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -18.34%E -3.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 18:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -18.34%E -3.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 18:10
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -18.34%E -3.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -0.533%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -18.34%E -3.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 18:10
picklebet_au🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -4.68%E -0.407%K -0.445%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 18:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.99%EV -10.30%E -8.66%K -54.21%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.86%EV -4.68%E -0.407%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -8.54%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -6.53%E -5.27%K -27.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 18:10
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.78%E -4.62%K -23.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.73%EV -6.53%E -5.27%K -27.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -8.79%E -7.27%K -41.87%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -11.05%E -9.37%K -61.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -8.82%E -0.802%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-15 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.57%EV -3.52%E -2.75%K -12.56%G +0.000%10.85I 9.22%NM 8.80%EV -10.07%E -0.928%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.63%EV -6.25%E -1.09%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.23%EV -4.27%E -3.36%K -15.81%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.85%EV -10.48%E -0.970%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.23%EV -4.27%E -3.36%K -15.81%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.85%EV -10.48%E -0.970%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.38%EV -3.52%E -2.75%K -12.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.07%EV -12.97%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 18:50
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -2.76%E -2.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -17.11%E -1.71%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -6.09%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 18:35
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.02%EV -5.02%E -3.99%K -19.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -17.11%E -1.71%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV -8.54%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -9.55%E -7.96%K -47.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -17.11%E -1.71%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -2.00%E -0.334%K -0.400%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-15 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -17.11%E -1.71%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.17%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 18:33
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.81%EV -9.55%E -7.96%K -47.73%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.32%EV -21.26%E -2.24%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.87%EV -14.25%E -2.71%K -3.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-15 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.56%EV -9.55%E -7.96%K -47.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.67%EV -25.40%E -2.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.77%EV -19.97%E -4.08%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-15 18:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.62%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52%0.6%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.43%1.3%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.43%1.3%2026-10-15 18:55