Language:English
Samsunspor v Rayo Vallecano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Samsunspor (Local)
Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV +1.52%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 4.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%24.87%24.98%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.743.754.0728.99%26.76%26.67%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rayo Vallecano (Visit)
Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.34%44.94%44.96%45.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.102.1850.00%47.97%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -0.975%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.18%30.19%30.07%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.083.103.2534.48%32.45%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Samsunspor (Local): 24.94%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 44.96%; Draw: 30.09%. For Samsunspor (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV +1.52%E +0.372%K +0.494%G +0.007% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.58%EV -4.68%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-12 17:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.231%E -0.058%K -0.077%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.82%EV -0.730%E -0.183%K -0.245%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.59%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 17:18 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -2.73%E -0.699%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -2.73%E -0.699%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%EV -10.07%E -5.04%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.83%EV -2.97%E -0.765%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.51%EV -2.43%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-12 16:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.83%EV -2.97%E -0.765%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.51%EV -2.43%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-12 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%EV -3.97%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.39%EV -4.68%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.61%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -3.97%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.75%EV -3.33%E -1.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -3.97%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.71%EV -8.27%E -4.06%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -3.97%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -9.17%E -4.54%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-12 17:38 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 10:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.37%EV -10.07%E -5.04%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -11.22%E -3.80%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-12 17:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.71%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.71%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.87%EV -8.21%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.31%EV -9.17%E -4.54%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.81%EV -7.61%E -2.48%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-12 17:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -8.96%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.55%EV -1.98%E -0.908%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.43%EV -6.11%E -1.96%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -8.96%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-12 16:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.96%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -8.96%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -10.07%E -5.04%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -2.43%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-12 16:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.07%E -5.04%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -11.45%E -3.23%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -3.78%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-12 16:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -6.48%E -3.11%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-12 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.67% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.67% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46% | 1.0% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |