The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lech Poznań v KuPS Kuopio

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 80.66%1.24fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -16.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.06%80.53%80.83%82.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.171.2090.09%85.98%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KuPS Kuopio (Visit)

Prediction 6.63%15.07fair odd
EV +16.10%
Edge +0.920%
Kelly +0.976%
Growth +0.157%

assuming max odds 17.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.47%6.58%6.54%8.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.9413.0017.509.09%7.17%7.69%5.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.71%7.87fair odd
EV +2.31%
Edge +0.287%
Kelly +0.328%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 8.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.67%12.89%12.63%14.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.407.117.008.0515.63%14.06%14.29%12.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 80.66%; KuPS Kuopio (Visit): 6.63%; Draw: 12.71%. For KuPS Kuopio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.07. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.56%EV -6.44%E -5.55%K -40.24%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.47%EV +16.10%E +0.920%K +0.976%G +0.157%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.97%EV +1.68%E +0.210%K +0.240%G +0.004%4.4%2026-02-26 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.57%EV -6.44%E -5.55%K -40.24%G +0.000%17.31I 5.78%NM 5.53%EV +14.84%E +0.857%K +0.910%G +0.135%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.90%EV +2.31%E +0.287%K +0.328%G +0.008%4.4%2026-02-26 19:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.74%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.15%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV +6.15%E +0.384%K +0.410%G +0.025%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.25%EV -7.85%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 19:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.74%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.15%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV +6.15%E +0.384%K +0.410%G +0.025%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.25%EV -7.85%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 19:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.23%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.81%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +6.15%E +0.384%K +0.410%G +0.025%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.78%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-26 19:55
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +6.15%E +0.384%K +0.410%G +0.025%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 19:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 19:55
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.57%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.23%EV -3.41%E -0.448%K -0.516%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 19:55
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 19:43
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 19:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -14.21%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 19:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -0.485%E -0.032%K -0.035%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -14.21%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 19:55
PlayUp🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -3.21%E -2.68%K -16.06%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -7.12%E -0.508%K -0.548%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 19:40
Bovada🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.73%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.57%EV -7.12%E -0.508%K -0.548%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.69%EV -7.85%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 19:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.17%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -10.44%E -0.773%K -0.835%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-26 19:55
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.85%EV -3.21%E -2.68%K -16.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.37%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.78%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 19:40
theScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.30%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +1.68%E +0.210%K +0.240%G +0.004%7.1%2026-02-26 19:55
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 19:41
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.83%EV -6.44%E -5.55%K -40.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.04%EV -9.76%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-26 19:54
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 19:41
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 19:40
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.63%E -4.81%K -33.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.05%E -7.06%K -57.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -13.75%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -4.68%E -0.624%K -0.720%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 19:50
Fliff🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.69%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.30%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.22%EV -15.74%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 19:54
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.58%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.81%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -17.07%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +2.31%E +0.287%K +0.328%G +0.008%5.2%2026-02-26 19:55
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.06%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.15%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%EV -17.07%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -18.66%E -2.92%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 19:35
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.06%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.15%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%EV -17.07%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -18.66%E -2.92%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.20%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.81%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.38%EV -17.07%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.42%EV -18.66%E -2.92%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 19:44
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.81%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -20.39%E -1.70%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 19:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -10.47%E -9.43%K -95.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -20.39%E -1.70%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -11.03%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-26 19:49
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.33%EV -8.86%E -7.84%K -68.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.05%EV -27.02%E -2.46%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -17.39%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-26 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.51%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%0.8%2026-02-26 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.51%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%0.8%2026-02-26 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.55%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%1.0%2026-02-26 19:55