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Hajduk Split v Ajax
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hajduk Split (Local)
Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV +10.41%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +2.74%
Growth +0.285%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%22.73%23.07%23.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.104.004.8027.03%24.39%25.00%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ajax (Visit)
Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.48%54.01%53.56%58.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.721.731.8060.98%58.04%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV +3.03%
Edge +0.688%
Kelly +0.890%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.82%23.26%23.37%24.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.963.904.4027.03%25.22%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hajduk Split (Local): 23.00%; Ajax (Visit): 53.58%; Draw: 23.41%. For Hajduk Split (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +10.41%E +2.17%K +2.74%G +0.285% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.18%EV -11.59%E -7.02%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027% | 4.2% | 2026-10-15 04:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027% | 3.6% | 2026-10-15 16:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.68%EV -2.13%E -0.508%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -9.45%E -5.59%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.33%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.57%EV -4.09%E -2.28%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -2.83%E -0.681%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.66%E -0.395%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-15 16:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-15 16:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-15 16:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.37%E -4.90%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.88%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.51%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.37%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-15 16:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.45%EV -10.75%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.91%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-15 16:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -14.89%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.01%EV -12.13%E -7.39%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -13.36%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |