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Hajduk Split v Ajax
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Hajduk Split (Local)
Predicción 23.00%4.35momio equitativo
EV +10.41%
Ventaja +2.17%
Kelly +2.74%
Crecimiento +0.285%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.00%22.73%23.07%23.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.104.004.8027.03%24.39%25.00%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Ajax (Visitante)
Predicción 53.58%1.87momio equitativo
EV -3.55%
Ventaja -1.97%
Kelly -4.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.48%54.01%53.56%58.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.721.731.8060.98%58.04%57.80%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 23.41%4.27momio equitativo
EV +3.03%
Ventaja +0.688%
Kelly +0.890%
Crecimiento +0.027%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.82%23.26%23.37%24.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.963.904.4027.03%25.22%25.64%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hajduk Split (Local): 23.00%; Ajax (Visitante): 53.58%; Empate: 23.41%. Para Hajduk Split (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.35. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.41%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +10.41%E +2.17%K +2.74%G +0.285% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.18%EV -11.59%E -7.02%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027% | 4.2% | 2026-10-15 04:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027% | 3.6% | 2026-10-15 16:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.68%EV -2.13%E -0.508%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -9.45%E -5.59%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.33%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.57%EV -4.09%E -2.28%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -2.83%E -0.681%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.66%E -0.395%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-15 16:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-15 16:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-15 16:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-15 16:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.37%E -4.90%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.88%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.51%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-15 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.37%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-15 16:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.45%EV -10.75%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.91%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-15 16:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -14.89%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.01%EV -12.13%E -7.39%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -13.36%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-15 16:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 0.9% | 2026-10-15 16:40 |