Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hajduk Split v Ajax

Início: 2026-10-15 16:46 UTC

Final: Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Hajduk Split (Local)

Previsão 23.00%4.35odd justa
EV +10.41%
Vantagem +2.17%
Kelly +2.74%
Crescimento +0.285%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.00%22.73%23.07%23.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.704.104.004.8027.03%24.39%25.00%20.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ajax (Visitante)

Previsão 53.58%1.87odd justa
EV -3.55%
Vantagem -1.97%
Kelly -4.44%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.48%54.01%53.56%58.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.641.721.731.8060.98%58.04%57.80%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.41%4.27odd justa
EV +3.03%
Vantagem +0.688%
Kelly +0.890%
Crescimento +0.027%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.82%23.26%23.37%24.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.703.963.904.4027.03%25.22%25.64%22.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Hajduk Split (Local): 23.00%; Ajax (Visitante): 53.58%; Empate: 23.41%. Para Hajduk Split (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.35. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +10.41%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +10.41%E +2.17%K +2.74%G +0.285%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.18%EV -11.59%E -7.02%K -17.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027%4.2%2026-10-15 04:24
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 16:35
Unibet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +3.51%E +0.781%K +1.00%G +0.035%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.22%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.43%EV -4.00%E -0.975%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010%5.0%2026-10-15 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV +2.36%E +0.531%K +0.685%G +0.016%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +1.86%E +0.426%K +0.554%G +0.010%5.0%2026-10-15 16:35
ReBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +3.03%E +0.688%K +0.890%G +0.027%3.6%2026-10-15 16:05
1xBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV +1.21%E +0.276%K +0.357%G +0.004%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.68%EV -2.13%E -0.508%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 16:40
picklebet_au🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 16:20
SportsBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 16:40
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -9.45%E -5.59%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-15 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.39%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.05%E -6.66%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:30
Pinnacle🎯4.11I 24.33%NM 23.33%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.57%EV -4.09%E -2.28%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -2.83%E -0.681%K -0.898%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.66%E -0.395%K -0.518%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Bet Victor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:38
betano_uk🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:38
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:30
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 16:20
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 16:19
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:30
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 16:20
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:40
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.77%E -3.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:20
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.34%E -1.59%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:20
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -7.30%E -4.22%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:20
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.37%E -4.90%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.91%E -5.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:40
Bet Right🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -9.14%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.88%EV -5.70%E -3.24%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.51%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:30
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:29
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.68%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -9.98%E -5.94%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 16:40
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.37%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 23.45%EV -10.75%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.91%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:20
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -7.84%E -4.56%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.19%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-15 16:39
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -14.89%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.01%EV -12.13%E -7.39%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -13.36%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-15 16:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40