The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Twente Enschede v FC Thun

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 19:00 UTC

Final: FC Twente Enschede 1–0 FC Thun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Prediction 81.87%1.22fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -3.60%
Kelly -24.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.40%81.76%82.09%82.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.151.151.1791.74%87.30%86.96%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Thun (Visit)

Prediction 7.00%14.28fair odd
EV +5.01%
Edge +0.334%
Kelly +0.358%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.19%7.09%6.80%8.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.9913.0015.009.09%7.70%7.69%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.13%8.98fair odd
EV +3.52%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.424%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 9.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.22%11.15%11.12%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.258.259.3014.29%12.13%12.12%10.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 81.87%; FC Thun (Visit): 7.00%; Draw: 11.13%. For FC Thun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.28. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.68%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +5.01%E +0.334%K +0.358%G +0.018%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.95%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 18:04
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.90%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.30%EV +5.01%E +0.334%K +0.358%G +0.018%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.80%EV -2.60%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +5.01%E +0.334%K +0.358%G +0.018%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 18:05
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV +5.01%E +0.334%K +0.358%G +0.018%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:04
Bet Victor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV +5.01%E +0.334%K +0.358%G +0.018%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:54
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.02%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV +1.51%E +0.104%K +0.112%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.02%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV +1.51%E +0.104%K +0.112%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 18:55
ReBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.91%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.75%EV -0.243%E -0.017%K -0.018%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.34%EV +3.52%E +0.378%K +0.424%G +0.015%4.0%2026-10-15 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.93%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%14.19I 7.05%NM 6.72%EV -0.663%E -0.047%K -0.050%G +0.000%9.21I 10.86%NM 10.35%EV +2.52%E +0.273%K +0.307%G +0.008%4.9%2026-10-15 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.01%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.65%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV +0.181%E +0.020%K +0.023%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 18:45
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.14%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 18:55
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.84%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -1.99%E -0.142%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-15 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.30%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%13.75I 7.27%NM 6.76%EV -3.74%E -0.272%K -0.294%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.07%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.05%EV -5.49%E -0.407%K -0.439%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -2.60%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.07%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.05%EV -5.49%E -0.407%K -0.439%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -2.60%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 18:30
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.97%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV -8.99%E -0.692%K -0.749%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.66%EV +0.181%E +0.020%K +0.023%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 18:29
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.22%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -8.99%E -0.692%K -0.749%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV +0.181%E +0.020%K +0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 17:50
Bet Right🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -8.99%E -0.692%K -0.749%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 18:05
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.11%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -8.99%E -0.692%K -0.749%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-15 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -9.94%E -9.04%K -99.45%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -8.99%E -0.692%K -0.749%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 18:50
picklebet_au🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.35%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV -12.49%E -0.999%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 18:00
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 17:50
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.21%E -3.60%K -24.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.95%E -1.37%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 17:50
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -5.39%E -0.634%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -16.52%E -2.20%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.33%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV -16.52%E -2.20%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.33%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV -16.52%E -2.20%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.33%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -15.99%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV -16.52%E -2.20%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 18:50
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.75%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%11.80I 8.47%NM 8.04%EV -17.39%E -1.47%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.28I 10.78%NM 10.22%EV +3.30%E +0.355%K +0.398%G +0.013%5.5%2026-10-15 18:50
Neds🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.55%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV -19.49%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -8.17%E -0.990%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.55%EV -5.03%E -4.34%K -31.45%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV -19.49%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -8.17%E -0.990%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 18:00
BetMGM🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.68%EV -5.85%E -5.09%K -39.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -19.49%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.25%EV -8.17%E -0.990%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 18:27
NetBet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.38%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.61%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.90%EV -19.49%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.72%EV -13.73%E -1.77%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.79%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.64%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.09%EV -21.24%E -1.89%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -16.52%E -2.20%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 18:33
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.40%EV -9.13%E -8.22%K -82.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -22.99%E -2.09%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -22.08%E -3.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-15 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 80.10%EV -10.76%E -9.87%K -119.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.94%EV -22.99%E -2.09%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 11.96%EV -18.74%E -2.57%K -2.97%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-15 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.05%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.83%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.05%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.83%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.05%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.83%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.12%0.8%2026-10-15 18:55