The School of Odds
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FC Twente Enschede v FC Thun

2026-10-15 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa Conference League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Prediction 78.42%1.28fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -15.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.56%78.42%78.42%79.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.201.211.2385.47%83.33%82.99%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Thun (Visit)

Prediction 7.88%12.69fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.189%
Kelly +0.205%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.29%7.88%7.88%10.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.5812.0013.0011.76%8.63%8.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.70%7.30fair odd
EV +0.406%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.07%13.70%13.70%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.766.887.3317.39%14.79%14.55%13.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 78.42%; FC Thun (Visit): 7.88%; Draw: 13.70%. For FC Thun (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.69. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.32%EV -3.54%E -2.88%K -15.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.205%G +0.005%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV -7.54%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 21:30
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.64%EV -6.68%E -5.61%K -35.15%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.205%G +0.005%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -0.690%E -0.095%K -0.110%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 21:29
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -4.33%E -3.55%K -19.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.02%EV -5.43%E -0.452%K -0.493%G +0.000%7.33I 13.64%NM 13.13%EV +0.406%E +0.055%K +0.064%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 21:29
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -4.33%E -3.55%K -19.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -5.43%E -0.452%K -0.493%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -10.96%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 21:30
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -8.25%E -7.05%K -48.51%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -4.11%E -0.588%K -0.686%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 03:10
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.56%EV -8.25%E -7.05%K -48.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.26%EV -33.01%E -3.88%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.17%EV -21.24%E -3.69%K -4.47%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-31 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-08-31 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-01 02:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 33.02%1.07I 93.46%NM 33.02%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.97%183.1%2026-09-01 03:05