Language:English
AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar (Local)
Prediction 35.56%2.81fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.852%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.26%35.58%35.59%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.602.602.7740.82%38.40%38.46%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Shakhtar Donetsk (Visit)
Prediction 37.03%2.70fair odd
EV -0.026%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.015%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.62%37.07%37.07%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.542.7041.67%39.39%39.37%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.42%3.65fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.753%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.32%27.36%27.35%28.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.453.5531.25%29.17%28.99%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 35.56%; Shakhtar Donetsk (Visit): 37.03%; Draw: 27.42%. For Shakhtar Donetsk (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.701. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.700, with an expected value of -0.026%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.96%EV -1.51%E -0.544%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.96%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.20%EV -2.22%E -0.807%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.58%EV -3.77%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.37%EV -3.29%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.75%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.75%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.45%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.81%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.74%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.19%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.26%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -11.13%E -4.64%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.87%EV -6.32%E -2.50%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 16:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.42%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.37%EV -7.20%E -2.76%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.07%EV -7.80%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 16:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.73%EV -0.026%E -0.010%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-16 15:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.85%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.62%EV -5.69%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -8.26%E -3.20%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -8.26%E -3.20%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 16:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.27%E -3.83%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-16 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 15:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.09% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.83% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.30% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.42% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 16:35 |