L’École des cotes

AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-16 16:45 UTC

Score final : AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Shakhtar Donetsk

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prévision 35.56%2.81cote équitable
EV -1.51%
Avantage -0.544%
Kelly -0.852%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.26%35.58%35.59%37.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.452.602.602.7740.82%38.40%38.46%36.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Shakhtar Donetsk (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.03%2.70cote équitable
EV -0.026%
Avantage -0.010%
Kelly -0.015%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.62%37.07%37.07%38.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.542.542.7041.67%39.39%39.37%37.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.42%3.65cote équitable
EV -2.67%
Avantage -0.753%
Kelly -1.05%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.32%27.36%27.35%28.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.433.453.5531.25%29.17%28.99%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.77I 36.10%NM 34.96%EV -1.51%E -0.544%K -0.852%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.96%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 16:30
Pinnacle2.75I 36.36%NM 35.20%EV -2.22%E -0.807%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.58%EV -3.77%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 16:30
ReBet2.72I 36.76%NM 35.37%EV -3.29%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 16:35
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.75%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-16 16:30
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.75%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-16 16:30
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 35.45%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.81%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.74%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-16 16:30
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 35.19%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.26%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 16:30
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 16:35
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:35
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -11.13%E -4.64%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 16:30
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 16:30
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:30
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.87%EV -6.32%E -2.50%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 16:35
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 16:33
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.42%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 16:30
NetBet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 16:34
Bovada2.61I 38.31%NM 35.37%EV -7.20%E -2.76%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.07%EV -7.80%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-16 16:34
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.73%EV -0.026%E -0.010%K -0.015%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-16 15:45
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 16:29
1xBet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.85%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.62%EV -5.69%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 16:30
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 16:35
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 16:35
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -8.26%E -3.20%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 16:35
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -8.26%E -3.20%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.67%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 16:35
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 16:30
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 16:05
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:30
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 16:35
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 16:30
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 16:35
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 16:35
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 16:35
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 16:35
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.27%E -3.83%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-16 16:30
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 15:50
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.16%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 15:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.09%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-16 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-16 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.30%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.42%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-04-16 16:35