Language:English
AEK Athens v NK Celje
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEK Athens (Local)
Prediction 74.86%1.34fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -11.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.29%74.67%75.00%77.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.251.251.2984.03%79.89%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
NK Celje (Visit)
Prediction 9.22%10.85fair odd
EV +10.62%
Edge +0.885%
Kelly +0.965%
Growth +0.103%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.94%9.28%9.12%10.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.0610.0012.0011.76%9.94%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV +3.47%
Edge +0.534%
Kelly +0.631%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.60%16.06%15.88%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.825.756.5020.00%17.18%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 74.86%; NK Celje (Visit): 9.22%; Draw: 15.92%. For NK Celje (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.85. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.42%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +10.62%E +0.885%K +0.965%G +0.103% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV +3.47%E +0.534%K +0.631%G +0.022% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +6.01%E +0.523%K +0.572%G +0.034% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +1.88%E +0.293%K +0.348%G +0.007% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 17:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +1.40%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 17:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.40%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV +1.88%E +0.293%K +0.348%G +0.007% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 17:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.17%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +1.40%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.35%EV -9.27%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.01%EV -10.91%E -9.17%K -57.43%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +1.40%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.01%EV -10.91%E -9.17%K -57.43%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +1.40%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.36%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.71%EV +0.480%E +0.044%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 15.93%EV -5.13%E -0.860%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.56%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.74I 9.31%NM 8.94%EV -0.995%E -0.093%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.19I 16.16%NM 15.50%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.282%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.52%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.35%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 12:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.52%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.35%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 12:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -4.49%E -0.748%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 13:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -4.49%E -0.748%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 17:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 17:28 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -3.21%E -0.305%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-19 16:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.55%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 9.23%EV -4.13%E -0.397%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.23%EV +0.285%E +0.045%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 17:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.11%EV -5.51%E -0.538%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-19 17:33 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.03%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.37%EV -0.511%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-19 10:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -4.49%E -0.748%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 17:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +3.47%E +0.534%K +0.631%G +0.022% | 5.4% | 2026-03-18 18:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 05:05 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.50%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.04%EV -6.08%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 17:18 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-19 17:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-19 17:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-19 17:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.82%E -0.782%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -20.41%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-19 17:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 15:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.98%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 16:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.49%E -0.748%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.28%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.47%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-19 17:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.54%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.81%EV -7.67%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-19 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.59%EV -10.16%E -8.47%K -50.82%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -12.43%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.98%EV -10.86%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-19 16:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.26%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.72%EV -13.35%E -1.42%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -9.27%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.59%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.07%EV -14.27%E -1.53%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.59%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.07%EV -14.27%E -1.53%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -14.04%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 17:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -17.04%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -10.86%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-19 15:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -17.04%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -10.86%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-19 15:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -17.04%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-19 15:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -21.64%E -2.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -12.45%E -2.26%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 08:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.68%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -21.64%E -2.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -16.43%E -3.13%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-19 15:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 16:39 |