Language:English
VfL Wolfsburg v Lyon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg (Local)
Prediction 12.21%8.19fair odd
EV +9.89%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.122%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.56%12.11%12.26%13.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.467.509.0014.29%13.40%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lyon (Visit)
Prediction 71.79%1.39fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -11.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%71.86%71.67%74.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.271.281.3486.96%78.57%78.13%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.00%6.25fair odd
EV +0.007%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.81%16.02%16.07%17.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.515.506.2520.00%18.16%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 12.21%; Lyon (Visit): 71.79%; Draw: 16.00%. For VfL Wolfsburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV +9.89%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.122% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.24%EV -8.11%E -6.34%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +0.007%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.07I 12.39%NM 11.57%EV -1.47%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.82%EV -6.67%E -5.13%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 5.62I 17.79%NM 16.61%EV -10.07%E -1.79%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-24 17:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.06I 12.41%NM 11.63%EV -1.59%E -0.197%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.26%EV -8.11%E -6.34%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 6.21I 16.10%NM 15.10%EV -0.633%E -0.102%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -2.32%E -0.290%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -7.39%E -5.73%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.99%E -0.665%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-24 17:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -2.32%E -0.290%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.07%EV -13.85%E -11.54%K -69.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -3.99%E -0.665%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-24 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -2.32%E -0.290%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.09%EV -13.85%E -11.54%K -69.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%EV -11.99%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-24 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -3.80%E -2.84%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -11.99%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.24%E -3.97%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -7.39%E -5.73%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -7.99%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-24 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.09%EV -9.55%E -7.58%K -36.71%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -7.99%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.52%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.56%EV -13.59%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-24 17:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.25%EV -8.43%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 73.40%EV -17.44%E -15.17%K -116.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.35%EV -11.99%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-03-24 17:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.53%EV -10.87%E -1.49%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -8.11%E -6.34%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -8.79%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.53%EV -10.87%E -1.49%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -8.11%E -6.34%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -8.79%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.18%EV -11.48%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.77%EV -11.70%E -9.51%K -50.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -11.99%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-24 17:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.99%EV -7.39%E -5.73%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.99%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-24 16:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -8.11%E -6.34%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.99%E -3.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.14%EV -8.83%E -6.95%K -32.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -16.79%E -3.23%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.14%EV -8.83%E -6.95%K -32.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -16.79%E -3.23%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -11.99%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-24 17:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -19.99%E -4.00%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -19.99%E -4.00%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -19.99%E -4.00%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.53%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.26%E -8.21%K -41.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -19.99%E -4.00%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.00% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12% | 1.2% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.44% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.70% | 1.4% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.82% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.14% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.03% | 1.8% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.12% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.22% | 3.4% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |