The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v Manchester United

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 65.70%1.52fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -7.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.68%65.81%65.51%69.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.361.4778.13%73.57%73.53%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester United (Visit)

Prediction 15.69%6.38fair odd
EV +17.65%
Edge +2.35%
Kelly +2.71%
Growth +0.479%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.65%15.68%15.81%16.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.246.057.5019.23%16.02%16.53%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.62%5.37fair odd
EV +0.527%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.120%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.42%18.50%18.68%19.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.005.055.4021.74%19.99%19.80%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 65.70%; Manchester United (Visit): 15.69%; Draw: 18.62%. For Manchester United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.38. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.77%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV +17.65%E +2.35%K +2.71%G +0.479%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.57%EV +0.527%E +0.098%K +0.120%G +0.001%5.4%2026-04-01 16:01
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.24%EV -11.97%E -8.93%K -35.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:01
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.41%EV -14.59%E -11.23%K -48.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV +9.80%E +1.40%K +1.63%G +0.160%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.69%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-01 16:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.42%EV -15.91%E -12.43%K -56.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.16%EV +5.88%E +0.871%K +1.02%G +0.060%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-01 16:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.42%EV -15.91%E -12.43%K -56.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.16%EV +5.88%E +0.871%K +1.02%G +0.060%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-01 16:01
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.86%EV -14.59%E -11.23%K -48.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV +1.96%E +0.302%K +0.356%G +0.007%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-01 16:19
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -8.02%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.57%EV +1.49%E +0.230%K +0.272%G +0.004%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.32%EV -9.99%E -7.30%K -27.01%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.12%EV -4.31%E -0.707%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -2.27%E -0.432%K -0.533%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-01 16:18
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.09%EV -9.99%E -7.30%K -27.01%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -4.31%E -0.707%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.85%EV -4.13%E -0.801%K -0.994%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-01 14:05
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -3.42%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -5.88%E -0.980%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-01 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.05%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -5.88%E -0.980%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -2.27%E -0.432%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-01 16:34
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -8.02%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -5.88%E -0.980%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 16:33
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -5.88%E -0.980%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-01 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.70%EV -14.59%E -11.23%K -48.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.45%EV -5.88%E -0.980%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.85%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-01 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.32%EV -6.71%E -4.72%K -15.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -9.80%E -1.71%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 16:40
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.01%EV -8.02%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -9.80%E -1.71%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.88%EV -7.37%E -5.22%K -17.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -13.73%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.48%EV -7.85%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-01 16:39
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.73%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-01 16:40
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.73%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-01 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.73%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-01 16:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.81%EV -10.65%E -7.83%K -29.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.73%E -2.50%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-01 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.68%EV -9.34%E -6.77%K -24.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.53%EV -15.29%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.79%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-01 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.38%EV -11.31%E -8.38%K -32.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -18.43%E -3.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-01 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.48I 67.57%NM 67.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-04-01 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%0.6%2026-04-01 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%0.6%2026-04-01 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%0.6%2026-04-01 16:35