The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v Barcelona

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 16:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 10.52%9.51fair odd
EV +47.28%
Edge +3.38%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +1.72%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.80%10.46%10.49%12.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.688.6314.0014.29%11.52%11.59%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 74.60%1.34fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -4.14%
Kelly -19.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.10%74.73%74.53%80.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.231.231.2786.21%81.41%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.88%6.72fair odd
EV +7.87%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.099%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.14%14.81%14.97%15.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.026.007.2518.18%16.61%16.67%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 10.52%; Barcelona (Visit): 74.60%; Draw: 14.88%. For Bayern Munich (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV +47.28%E +3.38%K +3.64%G +1.72%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.06%EV -11.22%E -9.43%K -59.08%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.14%EV +7.87%E +1.09%K +1.26%G +0.099%5.0%2026-04-22 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -0.063%E -0.007%K -0.007%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.52%EV -5.26%E -4.14%K -19.47%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.52%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 22:00
Paddy Power🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -0.063%E -0.007%K -0.007%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -11.97%E -10.14%K -66.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 18:59
DraftKings🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -7.49%E -6.04%K -31.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.29%E -0.506%K -0.598%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:00
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:05
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:04
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:04
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:04
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 22:15
Unibet (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 12:49
Betclic (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.25%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -4.77%E -0.746%K -0.884%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 16:20
Bet Victor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 18:09
Pinnacle🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -7.43%E -0.844%K -0.952%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.01%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000%6.36I 15.72%NM 14.51%EV -5.37%E -0.844%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 07:04
Bovada🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -7.95%E -0.909%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 19:04
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 10:14
LeoVegas🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.86%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -13.70%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-22 22:04
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.92%EV -9.73%E -8.04%K -46.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-22 22:05
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.92%EV -9.73%E -8.04%K -46.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-22 22:04
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.42%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.78%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.81%EV -16.68%E -2.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-22 22:00
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.13%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 74.22%EV -13.46%E -11.61%K -84.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -18.17%E -3.30%K -4.04%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-23 18:59
NordicBet🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -11.63%E -1.39%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.18%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 12:50
Betsson🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -11.63%E -1.39%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.18%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 10.75%EV -12.69%E -1.53%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 16:19
NetBet (FR)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 10.65%EV -13.21%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 74.46%EV -11.97%E -10.14%K -66.50%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.89%EV -12.21%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 08:30
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.61%EV -21.10%E -2.81%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 72.56%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.83%EV -18.17%E -3.30%K -4.04%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-23 07:00
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-22 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-22 13:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-22 13:54
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-22 14:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.22%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.13%4.1%2026-04-23 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 6.83%1.27I 78.74%NM 43.03%1.09I 91.74%NM 50.14%83.0%2026-04-23 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 6.83%1.27I 78.74%NM 43.03%1.09I 91.74%NM 50.14%83.0%2026-04-23 19:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 6.57%1.27I 78.74%NM 41.39%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.04%90.3%2026-04-24 03:05