La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Bayern Munich v Barcelona
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Bayern Munich (Local)
Predicción 10.52%9.51momio equitativo
EV +47.28%
Ventaja +3.38%
Kelly +3.64%
Crecimiento +1.72%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.80%10.46%10.49%12.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.008.688.6314.0014.29%11.52%11.59%7.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Barcelona (Visitante)
Predicción 74.60%1.34momio equitativo
EV -5.26%
Ventaja -4.14%
Kelly -19.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.10%74.73%74.53%80.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.161.231.231.2786.21%81.41%81.30%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 14.88%6.72momio equitativo
EV +7.87%
Ventaja +1.09%
Kelly +1.26%
Crecimiento +0.099%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.14%14.81%14.97%15.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.026.007.2518.18%16.61%16.67%13.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV +47.28%E +3.38%K +3.64%G +1.72% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.06%EV -11.22%E -9.43%K -59.08%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.14%EV +7.87%E +1.09%K +1.26%G +0.099% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -0.063%E -0.007%K -0.007%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.52%EV -5.26%E -4.14%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.52%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 22:00 |
| Paddy Power | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -0.063%E -0.007%K -0.007%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -11.97%E -10.14%K -66.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| DraftKings | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -7.49%E -6.04%K -31.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.29%E -0.506%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 06:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:00 |
| Grosvenor | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:05 |
| Casumo | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:04 |
| betPARX | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:04 |
| Unibet | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.00%E -4.76%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 22:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 12:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.25%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -4.77%E -0.746%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 16:20 |
| Bet Victor | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -5.32%E -0.591%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 18:09 |
| Pinnacle | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.48%EV -7.43%E -0.844%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.01%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000% | 6.36I 15.72%NM 14.51%EV -5.37%E -0.844%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 07:04 |
| Bovada | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -7.95%E -0.909%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| Betway | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 10:14 |
| LeoVegas | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.86%EV -8.99%E -7.37%K -40.85%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -13.70%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 22:04 |
| Virgin Bet | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.92%EV -9.73%E -8.04%K -46.34%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-22 22:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.92%EV -9.73%E -8.04%K -46.34%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-22 22:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.42%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.78%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.81%EV -16.68%E -2.98%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-22 22:00 |
| SportsBet | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.13%EV -10.58%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 74.22%EV -13.46%E -11.61%K -84.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -18.17%E -3.30%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| NordicBet | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -11.63%E -1.39%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.18%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Betsson | 8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -11.63%E -1.39%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.18%EV -8.24%E -6.70%K -35.83%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -9.24%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 8.30I 12.05%NM 10.75%EV -12.69%E -1.53%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 16:19 |
| NetBet (FR) | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.65%EV -13.21%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.46%EV -11.97%E -10.14%K -66.50%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.89%EV -12.21%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-23 08:30 |
| BoyleSports | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.61%EV -21.10%E -2.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 72.56%EV -10.48%E -8.73%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.83%EV -18.17%E -3.30%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-23 07:00 |
| 888sport | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 13:54 |
| 888sport (SE) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 13:54 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 13:54 |
| William Hill | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -26.36%E -3.77%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.10%EV -6.75%E -5.40%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.73%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-22 14:36 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.22% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.13% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 6.83% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 43.03% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 50.14% | 83.0% | 2026-04-23 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 6.83% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 43.03% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 50.14% | 83.0% | 2026-04-23 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 6.57% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 41.39% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 52.04% | 90.3% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |