The School of Odds
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Barcelona v Lyon

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00 UTC

Final: Barcelona 4–0 Lyon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 60.41%1.66fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -5.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.69%60.12%67.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.461.6072.46%67.83%68.73%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lyon (Visit)

Prediction 17.94%5.57fair odd
EV +13.05%
Edge +2.07%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.321%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.12%17.88%18.05%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.245.406.3023.09%19.10%18.52%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.64%4.62fair odd
EV +15.80%
Edge +2.95%
Kelly +3.63%
Growth +0.574%

assuming max odds 5.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.80%21.43%21.83%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.345.3525.00%22.82%23.04%18.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 60.41%; Lyon (Visit): 17.94%; Draw: 21.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.08%EV -14.21%E -10.01%K -33.84%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.12%EV +13.05%E +2.07%K +2.46%G +0.321%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.80%EV +15.80%E +2.95%K +3.63%G +0.574%5.0%2026-05-23 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.60%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV +3.18%E +0.552%K +0.669%G +0.021%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.73%E +0.368%K +0.467%G +0.008%6.2%2026-05-23 15:50
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.36%EV -21.59%E -4.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 19.94%EV +1.29%E +0.277%K +0.352%G +0.005%7.1%2026-05-23 15:50
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%EV -11.80%E -8.08%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.52%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 15:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:49
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -14.21%E -10.01%K -33.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -1.31%E -0.238%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -2.60%E -0.578%K -0.743%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 15:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.56%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -12.08%E -2.46%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 15:49
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.28%E -2.06%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 15:48
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -15.42%E -11.02%K -38.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -15.42%E -11.02%K -38.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.58%EV -16.63%E -12.05%K -43.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.25%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.17%EV -5.85%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-23 15:50
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -14.77%E -3.11%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 15:49
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.07%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.46%EV -22.30%E -5.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.46%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 15:39
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.80%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.93%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 15:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV +3.18%E +0.552%K +0.669%G +0.021%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -8.01%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 15:48
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:40
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:39
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.39%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.90%EV -17.46%E -3.80%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-23 15:49
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV +2.28%E +0.400%K +0.485%G +0.011%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.06%EV -10.18%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:49
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV +2.28%E +0.400%K +0.485%G +0.011%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.06%EV -10.18%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -11.19%E -7.62%K -23.82%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -11.26%E -2.75%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.21%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -19.25%E -4.28%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.99%EV -12.34%E -3.05%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-23 15:50
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.05%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -4.90%E -0.924%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.24%EV -12.56%E -3.11%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 15:38
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.28%E -2.06%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -13.42%E -3.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.22%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32%0.5%2026-05-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%0.8%2026-05-23 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%0.8%2026-05-23 15:40
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.91%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.58%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%1.6%2026-05-23 15:40