La scuola delle quote

Barcelona v Lyon

Inizio: 2026-05-23 16:00 UTC

Finale: Barcelona 4–0 Lyon

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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30 bookmaker (10 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Barcelona (Casa)

Previsione 60.41%1.66quota equa
EV -3.34%
Vantaggio -2.09%
Kelly -5.57%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.60

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
58.14%60.69%60.12%67.08%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.381.471.461.6072.46%67.83%68.73%62.50%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Lyon (Trasferta)

Previsione 17.94%5.57quota equa
EV +13.05%
Vantaggio +2.07%
Kelly +2.46%
Crescita +0.321%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.30

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
15.12%17.88%18.05%21.36%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.335.245.406.3023.09%19.10%18.52%15.87%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 21.64%4.62quota equa
EV +15.80%
Vantaggio +2.95%
Kelly +3.63%
Crescita +0.574%

ipotizzando la quota massima 5.35

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
17.80%21.43%21.83%23.26%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.004.384.345.3525.00%22.82%23.04%18.69%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (30 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.08%EV -14.21%E -10.01%K -33.84%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.12%EV +13.05%E +2.07%K +2.46%G +0.321%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.80%EV +15.80%E +2.95%K +3.63%G +0.574%5.0%2026-05-23 13:30
Svenska Spel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.60%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV +3.18%E +0.552%K +0.669%G +0.021%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.73%E +0.368%K +0.467%G +0.008%6.2%2026-05-23 15:50
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.36%EV -21.59%E -4.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 19.94%EV +1.29%E +0.277%K +0.352%G +0.005%7.1%2026-05-23 15:50
Unibet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%EV -11.80%E -8.08%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.52%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 15:49
ATG (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:49
Unibet (NL)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
betPARX1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:50
Casumo1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%EV -12.40%E -8.55%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV +0.485%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.437%E -0.095%K -0.121%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 15:49
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -14.21%E -10.01%K -33.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -1.31%E -0.238%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -2.60%E -0.578%K -0.743%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 15:49
NetBet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.56%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -12.08%E -2.46%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 15:49
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.28%E -2.06%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 15:48
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -15.42%E -11.02%K -38.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 15:50
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -15.42%E -11.02%K -38.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -4.77%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 15:50
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.58%EV -16.63%E -12.05%K -43.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.25%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.17%EV -5.85%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-23 15:50
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -14.77%E -3.11%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 15:49
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 59.07%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.46%EV -22.30%E -5.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.46%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 15:39
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.80%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.93%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 15:40
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV +3.18%E +0.552%K +0.669%G +0.021%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -8.01%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 15:48
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:40
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:40
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:39
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -13.87%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-23 15:39
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.39%EV -13.01%E -9.03%K -29.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.90%EV -17.46%E -3.80%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -9.09%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-23 15:49
NordicBet1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV +2.28%E +0.400%K +0.485%G +0.011%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.06%EV -10.18%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:49
Betsson1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -10.59%E -7.16%K -22.06%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV +2.28%E +0.400%K +0.485%G +0.011%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.06%EV -10.18%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:49
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -11.19%E -7.62%K -23.82%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -3.10%E -0.575%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -11.26%E -2.75%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 15:40
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 58.21%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -19.25%E -4.28%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.99%EV -12.34%E -3.05%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-23 15:50
Pinnacle1.59I 62.89%NM 59.05%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -4.90%E -0.924%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.24%EV -12.56%E -3.11%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 15:38
Betway1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.28%E -2.06%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -13.42%E -3.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 15:40
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (4)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.22%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32%0.5%2026-05-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%0.8%2026-05-23 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%0.8%2026-05-23 15:40
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 61.91%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.58%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%1.6%2026-05-23 15:40