A Escola das Odds

Barcelona v Bayern Munich

Início: 2026-05-03 14:30 UTC

Final: Barcelona 4–2 Bayern Munich

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

31 casas de apostas (12 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Previsão 82.98%1.21odd justa
EV -5.40%
Vantagem -4.74%
Kelly -38.60%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
81.10%83.08%83.08%85.93%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.051.091.101.1495.24%91.34%90.91%87.72%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Bayern Munich (Visitante)

Previsão 6.18%16.19odd justa
EV +17.60%
Vantagem +0.924%
Kelly +0.976%
Crescimento +0.172%

pressupondo odds máximas de 19.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
4.96%6.31%6.12%9.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
10.0015.7415.2519.0410.00%6.36%6.56%5.25%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 10.84%9.22odd justa
EV +13.87%
Vantagem +1.32%
Kelly +1.46%
Crescimento +0.202%

pressupondo odds máximas de 10.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.00%10.61%10.80%11.78%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
7.758.658.5010.5012.90%11.56%11.76%9.52%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (31 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings1.11I 90.09%NM 85.10%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -1.18%E -0.074%K -0.078%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +13.87%E +1.32%K +1.46%G +0.202%5.9%2026-05-03 14:00
Pinnacle1.10I 90.91%NM 85.93%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%19.04I 5.25%NM 4.96%EV +17.60%E +0.924%K +0.976%G +0.172%10.38I 9.63%NM 9.11%EV +12.56%E +1.21%K +1.34%G +0.168%5.8%2026-05-03 14:00
Svenska Spel1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +17.35%E +0.913%K +0.964%G +0.167%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +3.02%E +0.318%K +0.356%G +0.011%5.9%2026-05-03 14:20
BetOnline.ag1.11I 90.09%NM 81.10%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -38.24%E -3.82%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 9.89%EV -1.32%E -0.145%K -0.162%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Grosvenor1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Casumo1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Unibet (NL)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Unibet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
ATG (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
betPARX1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Coolbet1.14I 87.72%NM 83.52%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.60%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -5.11%E -0.584%K -0.660%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Bovada1.10I 90.91%NM 83.04%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.44%EV -5.11%E -0.584%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 14:19
888sport1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 13:50
William Hill1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 13:50
Mr Green (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 13:50
888sport (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 13:50
Bet Victor1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -9.55%E -8.76%K -106.14%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:39
Betway1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -19.71%E -1.52%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 13:54
LeoVegas1.07I 93.46%NM 84.12%EV -11.21%E -10.48%K -160.18%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.29%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Paddy Power1.08I 92.59%NM 83.04%EV -10.38%E -9.61%K -129.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 14:05
SportsBet1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-03 14:05
Unibet (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 82.57%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.94%EV -9.99%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 14:11
NetBet (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 83.22%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.08%EV -10.44%E -0.720%K -0.773%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.69%EV -10.53%E -1.28%K -1.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-03 14:20
NordicBet1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.75%EV -16.62%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.12%EV -11.08%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:11
Betsson1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.75%EV -16.62%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.12%EV -11.08%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 14:11
Unibet (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -7.06%E -6.31%K -58.86%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:20
LiveScore Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 14:20
Virgin Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 14:20
BoyleSports1.08I 92.59%NM 82.10%EV -10.38%E -9.61%K -129.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -19.71%E -1.52%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-03 13:50
PMU (FR)1.05I 95.24%NM 83.55%EV -12.87%E -12.26%K -257.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV -1.18%E -0.074%K -0.078%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Betclic (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000%15.25I 6.56%NM 5.99%EV -5.81%E -0.381%K -0.408%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.78%EV -15.96%E -2.06%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:18
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41%1.2%2026-05-03 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41%1.2%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 85.49%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-05-03 14:20
Smarkets1.14I 87.72%NM 85.60%21.01I 4.76%NM 4.64%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%2.5%2026-05-03 14:21