La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Barcelona v Bayern Munich
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Barcelona (Local)
Predicción 82.98%1.21momio equitativo
EV -5.40%
Ventaja -4.74%
Kelly -38.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
81.10%83.08%83.08%85.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.051.091.101.1495.24%91.34%90.91%87.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Bayern Munich (Visitante)
Predicción 6.18%16.19momio equitativo
EV +17.60%
Ventaja +0.924%
Kelly +0.976%
Crecimiento +0.172%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 19.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.96%6.31%6.12%9.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
10.0015.7415.2519.0410.00%6.36%6.56%5.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 10.84%9.22momio equitativo
EV +13.87%
Ventaja +1.32%
Kelly +1.46%
Crecimiento +0.202%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.00%10.61%10.80%11.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.758.658.5010.5012.90%11.56%11.76%9.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.10%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -1.18%E -0.074%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +13.87%E +1.32%K +1.46%G +0.202% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.93%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 19.04I 5.25%NM 4.96%EV +17.60%E +0.924%K +0.976%G +0.172% | 10.38I 9.63%NM 9.11%EV +12.56%E +1.21%K +1.34%G +0.168% | 5.8% | 2026-05-03 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +17.35%E +0.913%K +0.964%G +0.167% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +3.02%E +0.318%K +0.356%G +0.011% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.10%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -38.24%E -3.82%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 9.89%EV -1.32%E -0.145%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Casumo | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Unibet | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| betPARX | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +11.18%E +0.621%K +0.657%G +0.073% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -2.40%E -0.267%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.52%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.60%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -5.11%E -0.584%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Bovada | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.04%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.44%EV -5.11%E -0.584%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 14:19 |
| 888sport | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:50 |
| William Hill | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 13:50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -9.55%E -8.76%K -106.14%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 11:39 |
| Betway | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -19.71%E -1.52%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 13:54 |
| LeoVegas | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.12%EV -11.21%E -10.48%K -160.18%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.29%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.04%EV -10.38%E -9.61%K -129.78%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -7.82%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.57%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.23%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -13.53%E -0.966%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 10.94%EV -9.99%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 14:11 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.22%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.08%EV -10.44%E -0.720%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.69%EV -10.53%E -1.28%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| NordicBet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.75%EV -16.62%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.12%EV -11.08%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 14:11 |
| Betsson | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.75%EV -16.62%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.12%EV -11.08%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 14:11 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -7.06%E -6.31%K -58.86%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -7.35%E -0.490%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.70%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV +5.00%E +0.294%K +0.313%G +0.016% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.10%EV -10.38%E -9.61%K -129.78%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -19.71%E -1.52%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-03 13:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.55%EV -12.87%E -12.26%K -257.44%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV -1.18%E -0.074%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -13.24%E -1.66%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.24%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.76%G +0.000% | 15.25I 6.56%NM 5.99%EV -5.81%E -0.381%K -0.408%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.78%EV -15.96%E -2.06%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-03 14:18 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41% | 1.2% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41% | 1.2% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.49% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-05-03 14:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.60% | 21.01I 4.76%NM 4.64% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76% | 2.5% | 2026-05-03 14:21 |