Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 17:30 UTC

Final: Universitatea Craiova 1–0 FC Vitebsk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universitatea Craiova (Local)

Prediction 69.62%1.44fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%69.52%70.13%74.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.301.281.4181.30%76.80%78.13%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Vitebsk (Visit)

Prediction 11.35%8.81fair odd
EV +24.80%
Edge +2.25%
Kelly +2.48%
Growth +0.615%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.50%11.46%11.17%15.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.009.099.0011.0016.67%11.00%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.04%5.25fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.519%
Kelly +0.637%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%19.02%18.70%20.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.095.255.4022.22%19.64%19.05%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:25
Unibet (NL)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
TABtouch1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
Unibet (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
Casumo1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
Grosvenor1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
betPARX1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
ATG (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
Svenska Spel1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -12.28%E -9.75%K -47.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV +24.80%E +2.25%K +2.48%G +0.615%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.80%E +0.519%K +0.637%G +0.018%7.0%2026-07-14 23:24
LiveScore Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -14.37%E -11.68%K -62.48%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.67%EV +19.13%E +1.82%K +2.01%G +0.385%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 23:24
Virgin Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -14.37%E -11.68%K -62.48%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.67%EV +19.13%E +1.82%K +2.01%G +0.385%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 23:24
FanDuel1.29I 77.52%NM 72.11%EV -10.19%E -7.90%K -35.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +2.11%E +0.234%K +0.263%G +0.006%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV +0.901%E +0.170%K +0.210%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-15 17:09
BetOnline.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.71%E -5.01%K -19.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.29%EV +2.11%E +0.234%K +0.263%G +0.006%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -14.33%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 17:09
LowVig.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.71%E -5.01%K -19.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.29%EV +2.11%E +0.234%K +0.263%G +0.006%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -14.33%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 17:10
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 71.94%EV -10.89%E -8.51%K -38.89%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.52%EV -0.729%E -0.083%K -0.094%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-15 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -12.98%E -10.38%K -51.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -3.57%E -0.419%K -0.475%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-15 17:08
Tipico (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.56%EV -10.89%E -8.51%K -38.89%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.01%EV -6.97%E -0.850%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -6.71%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-15 17:14
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -6.02%E -4.46%K -17.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -9.24%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-15 17:14
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -12.98%E -10.38%K -51.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -9.24%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-15 17:09
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 67.77%EV -1.84%E -1.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -12.07%E -1.56%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -8.62%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-15 17:13
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -14.91%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-15 17:10
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.11%E -6.14%K -25.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -14.91%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-15 17:09
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.11%EV -3.23%E -2.33%K -8.29%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -16.05%E -2.17%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -12.43%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-15 17:14
1xBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -1.84%E -1.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.28I 13.74%NM 12.88%EV -17.41%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.61%EV -13.38%E -2.94%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 17:11
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -20.58%E -2.94%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-15 17:14
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -20.58%E -2.94%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-15 17:14
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -2.54%E -1.81%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -22.85%E -3.36%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -4.81%E -0.962%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 17:14
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -2.54%E -1.81%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -31.93%E -5.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.33%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-15 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 72.09%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.76%0.5%2026-07-15 17:12
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.23%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.10%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67%1.1%2026-07-15 17:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.23%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.10%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67%1.1%2026-07-15 17:12