The School of Odds

SK Sturm Graz v Hearts

2026-07-21 18:30 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

SK Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 47.23%2.12fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.496%
Kelly +0.931%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.60%47.22%47.22%50.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.691.951.962.1459%51%51%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV +5.44%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.87%27.65%27.86%30.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.063.323.273.8033%30%31%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -0.946%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%25.13%24.92%26.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.603.8529%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -13.58%E -7.42%K -16.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV +5.44%E +1.43%K +1.94%G +0.106%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 13:15
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 50.85%EV -20.19%E -11.95%K -29.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.87%EV -0.112%E -0.031%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.28%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-17 13:15
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.55%E -2.77%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-17 12:30
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.85%EV -5.55%E -2.77%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.66%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.60%EV -8.40%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 13:49
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -3.64%E -0.946%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 12:30
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.09%EV -7.44%E -3.80%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 12:29
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.91%E -4.06%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-17 12:27
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 46.89%EV -7.44%E -3.80%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 12:30
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -9.80%E -5.13%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-17 12:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -9.80%E -5.13%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-17 12:45
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -0.827%E -0.394%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-17 12:25
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -13.58%E -7.42%K -16.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-17 13:49
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 45.57%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -12.60%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-17 13:49
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.60%EV +1.06%E +0.496%K +0.931%G +0.010%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.49%EV -15.09%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 13:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 34.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%53.9%2026-07-17 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.89I 52.91%NM 34.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%53.9%2026-07-17 13:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 34.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%1.98I 50.51%NM 32.81%53.9%2026-07-17 13:44
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.99%Marathon Bet 2.14 (47.2%) / Tipico (DE) 3.80 (26.6%) / Coolbet 3.85 (26.2%)Show all 3 combinations
SK Sturm Graz (Local)Hearts (Visit)DrawMargin
Marathon Bet 2.14 (47.2%)Tipico (DE) 3.80 (26.6%)Coolbet 3.85 (26.2%)+0.991%
Marathon Bet 2.14 (47.0%)Tipico (DE) 3.80 (26.5%)Betr (AU) 3.80 (26.5%)+0.644%
Neds 2.10 (47.7%)Tipico (DE) 3.80 (26.3%)Coolbet 3.85 (26.0%)+0.091%