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SK Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
SK Sturm Graz (Local)
Prediction 23.07%4.33fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.447%
Kelly +0.578%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 4.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.51%23.25%22.95%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.054.004.4227.03%24.67%25.00%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fenerbahce (Visit)
Prediction 53.96%1.85fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.72%53.72%54.08%55.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.81%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.97%4.35fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -0.841%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.32%23.03%22.97%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.903.854.2028.17%25.63%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SK Sturm Graz (Local): 23.07%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 53.96%; Draw: 22.97%. For SK Sturm Graz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.51%EV +1.98%E +0.447%K +0.578%G +0.011% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -4.68%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.61%EV -2.64%E -0.625%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.52%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.88%EV -4.22%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.61%EV -2.64%E -0.625%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.52%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.88%EV -4.22%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 18:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.22%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -6.98%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-11 18:08 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.09%EV -2.87%E -1.60%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03%EV -4.68%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.57%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -18.46%E -5.20%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -18.46%E -5.20%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.87%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.87%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.02%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.13%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.02%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.33%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -3.95%E -2.22%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.33%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -3.95%E -2.22%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -14.63%E -3.96%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |