Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce

2026-08-11 18:30 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 22.60%4.42fair odd
EV +0.592%
Edge +0.133%
Kelly +0.172%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.87%22.59%22.50%25.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.023.884.4527.03%24.90%25.81%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce (Visit)

Prediction 53.54%1.87fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +2.25%
Kelly +4.63%
Growth +0.203%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.98%53.62%53.34%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.751.9559.88%56.82%56.98%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.86%4.19fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.704%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.77%23.79%24.16%26.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.853.924.1028.57%25.96%25.48%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SK Sturm Graz (Local): 22.60%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 53.54%; Draw: 23.86%. For Fenerbahce (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.95, producing a positive expected value of +4.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -16.36%E -4.42%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV +4.40%E +2.25%K +4.63%G +0.203%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -16.50%E -4.71%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 23:10
1xBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.50%EV -2.12%E -0.490%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.95%EV -1.49%E -0.811%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.54%EV -5.28%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-06 01:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -11.84%E -3.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -2.18%E -0.532%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 00:50
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -12.97%E -3.37%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.57%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 00:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -6.19%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.99%EV -5.78%E -3.28%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.34%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 00:55
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.07%EV -5.78%E -3.28%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -6.95%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-06 00:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.71%EV -5.78%E -3.28%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -16.50%E -4.71%K -6.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-06 00:55
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.42%EV +0.592%E +0.133%K +0.172%G +0.001%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -6.31%E -3.61%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -5.76%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 00:50
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.42%EV +0.592%E +0.133%K +0.172%G +0.001%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -6.31%E -3.61%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -5.76%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 00:49
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -14.10%E -3.71%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -7.38%E -4.27%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.57%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-06 00:50
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -14.10%E -3.71%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.45%E -4.94%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -4.57%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-06 00:55
PlayUp🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -7.32%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.99%E -5.29%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -12.92%E -3.54%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-06 00:49
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -14.10%E -3.71%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -8.99%E -5.29%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -9.34%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-06 00:50
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -0.538%E -0.122%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -10.59%E -6.34%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.34%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 00:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (32 combinations) +1.89%NordicBet 4.45 (22.9%) / BetUS 1.95 (52.3%) / Betr (AU) 4.10 (24.9%)Show all 32 combinations
SK Sturm Graz (Local)Fenerbahce (Visit)DrawMargin
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.9%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (52.3%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.9%)+1.89%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.9%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (52.3%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.9%)+1.89%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (23.1%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (52.1%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.8%)+1.63%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)SportsBet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)FanDuel🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)SportsBet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)FanDuel🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.26%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.4%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.9%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.7%)+1.25%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)1xBet🎯 3.97 (25.5%)+1.07%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)1xBet🎯 3.97 (25.5%)+1.07%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (23.0%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.00%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (23.0%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)SportsBet🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.00%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (23.0%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)FanDuel🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.00%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.95 (25.6%)+0.938%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)Betsson🎯 3.95 (25.6%)+0.938%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.95 (25.6%)+0.938%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.7%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.8%)Betsson🎯 3.95 (25.6%)+0.938%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.9%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.7%)1xBet🎯 3.97 (25.4%)+0.808%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.9%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.95 (25.5%)+0.679%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.9%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)Betsson🎯 3.95 (25.5%)+0.679%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.2%)+0.627%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)SportsBet🎯 4.00 (25.2%)+0.627%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)FanDuel🎯 4.00 (25.2%)+0.627%
NordicBet🎯 4.45 (22.6%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)Bet Right🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.609%
Betsson🎯 4.45 (22.6%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.6%)Bet Right🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.609%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.5%)1xBet🎯 3.97 (25.3%)+0.436%
Tipico (DE)🎯 4.40 (22.8%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.5%)Bet Right🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.351%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.4%)NordicBet🎯 3.95 (25.4%)+0.308%
1xBet🎯 4.33 (23.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.4%)Betsson🎯 3.95 (25.4%)+0.308%
Marathon Bet🎯 4.15 (24.2%)BetUS🎯 1.95 (51.4%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.4%)+0.232%