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SK Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
SK Sturm Graz (Local)
Predicción 23.07%4.33momio equitativo
EV +1.98%
Ventaja +0.447%
Kelly +0.578%
Crecimiento +0.011%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.51%23.25%22.95%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.054.004.4227.03%24.67%25.00%22.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Fenerbahce (Visitante)
Predicción 53.96%1.85momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -3.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.72%53.72%54.08%55.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.81%57.80%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 22.97%4.35momio equitativo
EV -3.53%
Ventaja -0.841%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.32%23.03%22.97%24.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.903.854.2028.17%25.63%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SK Sturm Graz (Local): 23.07%; Fenerbahce (Visitante): 53.96%; Empate: 22.97%. Para SK Sturm Graz (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.33. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.42, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.98%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.51%EV +1.98%E +0.447%K +0.578%G +0.011% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -4.68%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV +1.52%E +0.345%K +0.446%G +0.007% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.61%EV -2.64%E -0.625%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.52%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.88%EV -4.22%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.61%EV -2.64%E -0.625%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.52%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.88%EV -4.22%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -3.10%E -0.738%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 18:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.22%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -6.98%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-11 18:08 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -5.41%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -16.17%E -4.43%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.09%EV -2.87%E -1.60%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03%EV -4.68%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 17:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.57%EV -4.49%E -2.54%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.73%E -4.52%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.27%E -4.86%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.65%E -3.84%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -18.46%E -5.20%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -7.71%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.97%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -18.46%E -5.20%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.87%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.87%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.02%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.13%EV -7.19%E -4.18%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.02%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.33%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -3.95%E -2.22%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.33%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -3.95%E -2.22%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -13.87%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-11 18:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.48%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -9.89%E -5.92%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -14.63%E -3.96%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.57%E -3.18%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-11 17:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-08-11 18:15 |