The School of Odds

Shamrock Rovers v Floriana F.C.

2026-07-14 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Shamrock Rovers (Local)

Prediction 69.14%1.45fair odd
EV -5.27%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -14.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%69.12%69.05%70.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.261.331.341.3779%75%75%73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Floriana F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 11.27%8.88fair odd
EV +2.53%
Edge +0.278%
Kelly +0.312%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.25%11.39%11.25%13.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.007.998.009.1014%13%13%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.59%5.10fair odd
EV +2.85%
Edge +0.542%
Kelly +0.669%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.79%19.49%19.70%22.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.694.675.2524%21%21%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.86%EV -6.66%E -4.93%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -12.68%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +2.85%E +0.542%K +0.669%G +0.019%6.0%2026-07-10 14:44
SportsBet1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -9.42%E -7.19%K -30.39%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -18.32%E -2.53%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -0.093%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 14:44
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 69.25%EV -9.42%E -7.19%K -30.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -21.13%E -3.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -0.093%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-10 14:46
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -3.20%E -2.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -23.39%E -3.44%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -2.05%E -0.410%K -0.513%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 14:39
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.66%E -4.93%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -15.50%E -2.07%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -2.05%E -0.410%K -0.513%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-10 14:44
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -21.13%E -3.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -2.05%E -0.410%K -0.513%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-10 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -21.13%E -3.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -2.05%E -0.410%K -0.513%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-10 14:49
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.39%K -16.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.58%EV +1.40%E +0.156%K +0.175%G +0.002%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.43%EV -4.01%E -0.819%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 16:50
Bet Right1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.35%E -5.48%K -21.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -21.13%E -3.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -4.01%E -0.819%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-10 14:45
Tipico (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.56%EV -11.50%E -8.98%K -41.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -4.23%E -0.498%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -5.97%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-10 15:10
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 69.88%EV -7.35%E -5.48%K -21.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +1.40%E +0.156%K +0.175%G +0.002%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -6.95%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 16:34
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.12%EV -8.04%E -6.04%K -24.36%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.25%EV +2.53%E +0.278%K +0.312%G +0.008%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.95%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 16:35
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 69.09%EV -8.04%E -6.04%K -24.36%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.94%EV -5.36%E -0.638%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.89%E -2.15%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 15:15
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 69.09%EV -8.04%E -6.04%K -24.36%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.94%EV -5.36%E -0.638%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.89%E -2.15%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 15:14
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.96%E -4.39%K -16.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.87%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -11.85%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 15:29
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.96%E -4.39%K -16.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.87%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -11.85%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 15:30
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.96%E -4.39%K -16.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.87%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -11.85%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 15:29
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -15.50%E -2.07%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -11.85%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-10 15:40
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 68.64%EV -6.66%E -4.93%K -19.02%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.53%EV -0.852%E -0.097%K -0.109%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -12.83%E -2.88%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 18:55
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 68.23%EV -12.88%E -10.22%K -49.53%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 11.78%EV -17.75%E -2.43%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.99%EV -15.76%E -3.67%K -4.78%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-10 16:49
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.23%EV -5.27%E -3.85%K -14.25%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.10%EV -6.49%E -0.781%K -0.888%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -16.74%E -3.94%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-10 19:15
PlayUp1.36I 73.53%NM 66.59%EV -5.96%E -4.39%K -16.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -9.87%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -19.68%E -4.80%K -6.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-10 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%10.5%2026-07-10 15:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%10.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%10.5%2026-07-10 15:15