The School of Odds

Red Star Belgrade v Larne FC

2026-07-29 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Red Star Belgrade (Local)

Prediction 86.24%1.16fair odd
EV -6.00%
Edge -5.50%
Kelly -66.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.23%86.20%86.25%86.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.0994%93%93%92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Larne FC (Visit)

Prediction 4.89%20.45fair odd
EV +66.28%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +1.33%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.74%4.58%4.90%5.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
17.0021.0619.0034.006%5%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 8.87%11.28fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.352%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 11.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.01%9.22%8.85%12.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.5010.0610.5011.7013%10%10%9%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet1.09I 91.74%NM 85.47%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV +66.28%E +1.95%K +2.01%G +1.33%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.79%EV -29.94%E -3.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 12:20
Betsson1.09I 91.74%NM 85.47%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV +66.28%E +1.95%K +2.01%G +1.33%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.79%EV -29.94%E -3.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 12:20
PlayUp1.09I 91.74%NM 84.23%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV +27.16%E +1.04%K +1.09%G +0.295%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -33.48%E -4.46%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 13:24
BetUS1.08I 92.59%NM 85.83%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.75%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV +2.70%E +0.129%K +0.135%G +0.004%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -15.75%E -1.66%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 13:15
Betr (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 86.33%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV -2.19%E -0.109%K -0.115%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -6.88%E -0.655%K -0.724%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 13:15
Neds1.09I 91.74%NM 86.12%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV -6.88%E -0.655%K -0.724%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-24 13:05
888sport1.08I 92.59%NM 86.58%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.75%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -2.44%E -0.222%K -0.244%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 12:00
888sport (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.58%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.75%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -2.44%E -0.222%K -0.244%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 12:00
Mr Green (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.58%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.75%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -2.44%E -0.222%K -0.244%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 11:59
Coolbet1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -11.31%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 13:24
SportsBet1.07I 93.46%NM 86.69%EV -7.72%E -7.22%K -110.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -2.44%E -0.222%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 10:45
FanDuel1.07I 93.46%NM 86.69%EV -7.72%E -7.22%K -110.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -2.44%E -0.222%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 10:44
BoyleSports1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -7.72%E -7.22%K -110.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -7.08%E -0.373%K -0.393%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -11.31%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 11:54
1xBet1.08I 92.59%NM 86.78%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.75%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -11.97%E -0.665%K -0.704%G +0.000%11.70I 8.55%NM 8.01%EV +3.77%E +0.322%K +0.352%G +0.013%6.7%2026-07-24 13:24
Marathon Bet1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%EV -7.72%E -7.22%K -110.32%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -11.97%E -0.665%K -0.704%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV +1.99%E +0.173%K +0.190%G +0.004%7.7%2026-07-24 13:15
Paddy Power1.06I 94.34%NM 85.85%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -11.97%E -0.665%K -0.704%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -11.31%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-24 10:44
Bet Right1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -6.00%E -5.50%K -66.64%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -16.86%E -0.992%K -1.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -20.18%E -2.24%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 32.80%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.09%190.4%2026-07-24 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 32.80%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.09%190.4%2026-07-24 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 32.80%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.11%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.09%190.4%2026-07-24 11:50