La escuela de los momios

Red Star Belgrade v Larne FC

2026-07-29 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Resultado del partido

33 corredores (8 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Red Star Belgrade (Local)

Predicción 88.16%1.13momio equitativo
EV -3.91%
Ventaja -3.59%
Kelly -43.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
84.88%87.90%88.29%89.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.021.051.051.0998.04%94.85%95.24%91.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Larne FC (Visitante)

Predicción 3.90%25.62momio equitativo
EV +32.70%
Ventaja +0.962%
Kelly +0.991%
Crecimiento +0.324%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 34.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
2.73%3.84%3.91%4.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
20.0026.2726.0034.005.00%3.81%3.85%2.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 7.94%12.59momio equitativo
EV +7.19%
Ventaja +0.533%
Kelly +0.575%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 13.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.97%8.26%7.80%11.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.0011.8912.0013.5012.50%8.41%8.33%7.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (33 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet1.08I 92.59%NM 86.07%EV -4.79%E -4.44%K -59.88%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV +32.70%E +0.962%K +0.991%G +0.324%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.20%EV -34.10%E -4.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 05:05
Betsson1.08I 92.59%NM 86.07%EV -4.79%E -4.44%K -59.88%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV +32.70%E +0.962%K +0.991%G +0.324%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.20%EV -34.10%E -4.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 05:04
Unibet (NL)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
Unibet1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
Casumo1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
Unibet (SE)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
ATG (SE)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
betPARX1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
Svenska Spel1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%6.4%2026-07-25 04:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 89.62%EV -8.32%E -8.00%K -207.92%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%7.3%2026-07-25 04:25
TABtouch1.04I 96.15%NM 89.62%EV -8.32%E -8.00%K -207.92%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%7.3%2026-07-25 04:25
Grosvenor1.03I 97.09%NM 89.45%EV -9.20%E -8.93%K -306.61%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -0.751%E -0.060%K -0.065%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 04:25
Virgin Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 89.27%EV -10.08%E -9.88%K -503.99%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.14%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 04:25
LiveScore Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 89.27%EV -10.08%E -9.88%K -503.99%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.14%EV +13.19%E +0.455%K +0.471%G +0.062%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 04:25
FanDuel1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -8.32%E -8.00%K -207.92%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.31%EV +9.29%E +0.332%K +0.344%G +0.032%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 15:05
Betr (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -5.67%E -5.30%K -81.03%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 15:00
BetUS1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -12.66%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:45
SportsBet1.04I 96.15%NM 89.03%EV -8.32%E -8.00%K -207.92%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -0.751%E -0.060%K -0.065%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 15:00
PlayUp1.09I 91.74%NM 84.88%EV -3.91%E -3.59%K -43.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -36.48%E -4.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 05:05
BoyleSports1.05I 95.24%NM 88.04%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -12.66%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 15:05
Paddy Power1.04I 96.15%NM 88.76%EV -8.32%E -8.00%K -207.92%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +1.48%E +0.057%K +0.059%G +0.001%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 14:59
Coolbet1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%EV -2.42%E -0.097%K -0.101%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -12.66%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 15:00
Bovada1.08I 92.59%NM 88.65%EV -4.79%E -4.44%K -59.88%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.99%EV -6.33%E -0.264%K -0.275%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.36%EV +3.22%E +0.248%K +0.268%G +0.009%4.5%2026-07-25 15:20
Neds1.07I 93.46%NM 87.43%EV -5.67%E -5.30%K -81.03%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV -10.23%E -0.445%K -0.465%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -12.66%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 05:04
888sport1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -10.23%E -0.445%K -0.465%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 14:50
888sport (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -10.23%E -0.445%K -0.465%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 14:50
Mr Green (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -10.23%E -0.445%K -0.465%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 14:49
1xBet1.06I 94.34%NM 88.75%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -14.13%E -0.642%K -0.673%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.97%EV +7.19%E +0.533%K +0.575%G +0.041%6.3%2026-07-25 14:56
Marathon Bet1.05I 95.24%NM 88.73%EV -7.44%E -7.08%K -148.70%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%EV -14.13%E -0.642%K -0.673%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.03%EV +5.20%E +0.393%K +0.425%G +0.022%7.3%2026-07-25 14:49
DraftKings1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV -18.04%E -0.859%K -0.902%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 10:45
Bet Right1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV -18.04%E -0.859%K -0.902%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -20.60%E -2.06%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 14:59
LowVig.ag1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV -21.94%E -1.10%K -1.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 15:20
BetOnline.ag1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -6.55%E -6.18%K -109.23%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV -21.94%E -1.10%K -1.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -4.72%E -0.393%K -0.429%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 15:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 88.18%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.05%5.0%2026-07-25 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 88.18%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.05%5.0%2026-07-25 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 88.18%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.05%5.0%2026-07-25 18:20