Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NK Celje v FC Ararat-Armenia

2026-08-11 18:15 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NK Celje (Local)

Prediction 61.86%1.62fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.69%61.88%61.74%63.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5569.44%66.84%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit)

Prediction 15.90%6.29fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.272%
Kelly +0.323%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.99%15.87%16.07%16.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.825.756.4018.18%17.17%17.39%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.24%4.50fair odd
EV +0.075%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.021%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.25%22.20%23.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.124.134.5025.97%24.27%24.24%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: NK Celje (Local): 61.86%; FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit): 15.90%; Draw: 22.24%. For FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.40, producing a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.89%EV -4.11%E -2.65%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +1.74%E +0.272%K +0.323%G +0.006%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.12%EV -7.71%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.89%EV -4.11%E -2.65%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +1.74%E +0.272%K +0.323%G +0.006%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.12%EV -7.71%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 15:33
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.98%EV -4.11%E -2.65%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 15.33%EV +1.27%E +0.199%K +0.236%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.69%EV +0.075%E +0.017%K +0.021%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.02%EV -8.44%E -5.70%K -17.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -3.03%E -0.496%K -0.593%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.37%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -5.97%E -3.93%K -11.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -4.62%E -0.769%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 15:40
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04%EV -8.44%E -5.70%K -17.59%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.56%EV -6.20%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.82%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04%EV -8.44%E -5.70%K -17.59%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.56%EV -6.20%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.82%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.49%EV -5.97%E -3.93%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -8.59%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.74%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -8.59%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.16%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.74%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -8.59%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.16%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 15:55
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.59%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-05 15:35
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.91%EV -8.44%E -5.70%K -17.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.68%EV -8.59%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -14.38%E -3.74%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-05 15:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-05 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-05 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.20%E -4.80%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-05 16:25
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -10.92%E -7.58%K -24.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-05 15:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.83%EV -10.92%E -7.58%K -24.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.19%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.98%EV -9.93%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-05 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.92%E -7.58%K -24.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.56%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-05 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.