Language:English
NK Celje v FC Ararat-Armenia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
NK Celje (Local)
Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -6.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.66%64.63%64.59%66.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.421.431.5077.52%70.56%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit)
Prediction 14.38%6.96fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +0.468%
Kelly +0.544%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 7.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.17%14.38%14.33%16.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.546.507.1918.18%15.29%15.38%13.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.97%4.77fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.303%
Kelly -0.385%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.88%21.00%21.08%22.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.464.504.7025.00%22.42%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NK Celje (Local): 64.65%; FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit): 14.38%; Draw: 20.97%. For FC Ararat-Armenia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.96. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.82%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.99%EV -0.083%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.48%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.74%EV -0.802%E -0.116%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -8.76%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.53%EV -13.37%E -9.98%K -39.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -2.96%E -0.438%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.53%EV -13.37%E -9.98%K -39.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -2.96%E -0.438%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.77%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.03%EV -4.40%E -0.661%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -8.20%E -5.77%K -19.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 66.58%EV -16.60%E -12.87%K -57.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.21%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.21%EV -10.86%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -3.67%E -2.46%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -7.99%E -1.25%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -8.76%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -10.15%E -1.62%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -10.15%E -1.62%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.04%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -1.42%E -0.303%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 18:08 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.81%E -2.28%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -7.55%E -5.28%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%EV -8.84%E -6.27%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -20.93%E -3.81%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -20.93%E -3.81%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |