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NK Celje v FC Ararat-Armenia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
NK Celje (Local)
Predicción 64.65%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.03%
Ventaja -2.02%
Kelly -6.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.66%64.63%64.59%66.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.421.431.5077.52%70.56%69.93%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
FC Ararat-Armenia (Visitante)
Predicción 14.38%6.96momio equitativo
EV +3.37%
Ventaja +0.468%
Kelly +0.544%
Crecimiento +0.018%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.19
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.17%14.38%14.33%16.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.546.507.1918.18%15.29%15.38%13.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 20.97%4.77momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.303%
Kelly -0.385%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.88%21.00%21.08%22.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.464.504.7025.00%22.42%22.22%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: NK Celje (Local): 64.65%; FC Ararat-Armenia (Visitante): 14.38%; Empate: 20.97%. Para FC Ararat-Armenia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.96. 13 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.19, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.37%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV +3.37%E +0.468%K +0.544%G +0.018% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.61%EV -3.10%E -0.671%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -10.78%E -7.81%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.636%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-11 17:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.82%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.99%EV -0.083%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.18%EV -3.73%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.48%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.74%EV -0.802%E -0.116%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -8.76%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.53%EV -13.37%E -9.98%K -39.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -2.96%E -0.438%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.53%EV -13.37%E -9.98%K -39.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -2.96%E -0.438%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.77%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.03%EV -4.40%E -0.661%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -8.20%E -5.77%K -19.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-11 17:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 66.58%EV -16.60%E -12.87%K -57.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.21%EV -6.55%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.21%EV -10.86%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -3.67%E -2.46%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -7.99%E -1.25%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -8.76%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -10.15%E -1.62%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 18:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -10.15%E -1.62%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -5.62%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-11 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.04%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -1.42%E -0.303%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 18:08 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.81%E -2.28%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -7.55%E -5.28%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.72%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%EV -8.84%E -6.27%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -3.52%E -0.765%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -11.91%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -13.74%E -2.29%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -20.93%E -3.81%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -20.93%E -3.81%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-11 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-11 18:10 |