The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lyon v Fenerbahce

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 19:00 UTC

Final: Lyon 1–2 Fenerbahce

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 46.74%2.14fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.57%46.82%46.68%50.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.951.952.0857.14%51.22%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce (Visit)

Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%26.24%26.13%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.643.704.0031.25%27.46%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV +0.375%
Edge +0.101%
Kelly +0.139%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%26.94%27.19%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.7030.77%28.79%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 46.74%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 26.13%; Draw: 27.13%. For Fenerbahce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.72%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV +4.51%E +1.13%K +1.50%G +0.068%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -0.981%E -0.269%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-26 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.72%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV +4.51%E +1.13%K +1.50%G +0.068%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -0.981%E -0.269%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-26 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +1.89%E +0.486%K +0.653%G +0.012%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-26 18:44
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +1.89%E +0.486%K +0.653%G +0.012%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +1.89%E +0.486%K +0.653%G +0.012%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 18:44
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +1.89%E +0.486%K +0.653%G +0.012%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 18:44
Coolbet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.73%EV -6.04%E -3.01%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%EV -0.719%E -0.189%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.02%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-26 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -11.18%E -5.89%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -0.719%E -0.189%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 18:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -0.719%E -0.189%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-26 18:45
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -0.719%E -0.189%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-26 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -0.719%E -0.189%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-26 18:45
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -2.02%E -0.540%K -0.736%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-26 18:43
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.80%EV -3.24%E -1.56%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -2.29%E -0.611%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-26 18:54
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-26 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -13.52%E -7.31%K -15.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-26 18:45
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -13.52%E -7.31%K -15.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-26 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.00%EV -14.46%E -7.90%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-26 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.00%EV -14.46%E -7.90%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-26 18:44
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.31%EV -18.20%E -10.40%K -24.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -3.33%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.89%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-26 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.20%EV -2.77%E -1.33%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.18%EV -4.12%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.61%EV -5.59%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-26 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.46%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.38%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -6.14%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-26 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.46%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.38%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -6.14%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-26 18:54
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.64%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-26 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 18:44
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -10.72%E -5.61%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.48%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-26 18:45
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.70%EV -6.99%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.70%EV -3.42%E -0.961%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-26 18:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.56%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV +0.375%E +0.101%K +0.139%G +0.001%5.6%2026-08-26 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.56%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 18:54
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.56%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-26 18:49
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -5.58%E -2.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.48%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -5.58%E -2.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.48%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:49
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -9.32%E -4.80%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -11.17%E -3.29%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-26 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -6.51%E -3.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.48%E -3.72%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-26 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -12.59%E -6.73%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -13.78%E -4.18%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -2.34%E -0.649%K -0.899%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-26 18:54
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -16.39%E -5.12%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-26 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -16.39%E -5.12%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-26 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -4.17%E -2.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -16.39%E -5.12%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-26 18:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.28%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.28%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-08-26 18:55