The School of Odds

KuPS Kuopio v FK Vardar

2026-07-14 15:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

KuPS Kuopio (Local)

Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd
EV -6.69%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -6.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.97%46.24%46.42%48.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.972.0156%51%51%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FK Vardar (Visit)

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV +2.64%
Edge +0.744%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%28.92%28.91%29.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.363.5533%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.66%4.05fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.447%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%24.83%24.66%26.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.504.0030%28%29%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
TABtouch1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:30
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:35
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:35
ATG (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:35
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -8.55%E -4.34%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV +2.64%E +0.744%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:37
LiveScore Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.20%EV -10.40%E -5.39%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -0.251%E -0.073%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -14.91%E -4.32%K -6.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-10 04:35
Virgin Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.20%EV -10.40%E -5.39%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -0.251%E -0.073%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -14.91%E -4.32%K -6.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-10 04:34
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.81%EV -10.40%E -5.39%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.46%EV -2.85%E -0.849%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.74%EV -8.00%E -2.14%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 04:35
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 46.21%EV -9.48%E -4.86%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.938%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -17.37%E -5.19%K -7.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-10 05:09
PMU (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 47.06%EV -13.19%E -7.05%K -15.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%EV -3.14%E -0.938%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -18.61%E -5.64%K -8.09%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-10 04:35
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.01%EV -16.44%E -9.13%K -20.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -3.14%E -0.938%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.19%EV -18.61%E -5.64%K -8.09%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-10 04:35
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.03%E -1.86%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -1.34%E -0.335%K -0.447%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 04:54
BetOnline.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 46.26%EV -6.69%E -3.33%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.03%E -1.86%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:35
LowVig.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 46.26%EV -6.69%E -3.33%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -6.03%E -1.86%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 04:34
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 05:19
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -9.01%E -4.60%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-10 04:54
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.48%E -4.86%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 04:55
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -9.01%E -4.60%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.92%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 04:55
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -11.33%E -5.93%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -10.37%E -3.35%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-10 04:54
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.48%E -4.86%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -16.14%E -4.75%K -6.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-10 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-10 05:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-10 05:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-10 05:25