The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Górnik Zabrze v Fenerbahce

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 18:00 UTC

Final: Górnik Zabrze 1–1 Fenerbahce

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Górnik Zabrze (Local)

Prediction 17.89%5.59fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.297%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.07%17.95%17.83%19.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.014.905.5021.74%19.95%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce (Visit)

Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -6.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.04%59.17%60.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.571.571.6267.11%63.86%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.98%4.35fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.327%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.01%23.00%24.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.204.4026.32%24.16%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Górnik Zabrze (Local): 17.89%; Fenerbahce (Visit): 59.13%; Draw: 22.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -14.15%E -2.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +1.11%E +0.253%K +0.327%G +0.004%6.1%2026-07-29 17:50
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -10.57%E -2.11%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.80%EV -4.20%E -2.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-29 17:54
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
Casumo🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
betPARX🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 17:45
TABtouch🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.48%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.48%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.76%EV -7.00%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.76%EV -10.11%E -6.65%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.48%EV -1.19%E -0.276%K -0.360%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 17:45
1xBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -8.79%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.26%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.15%EV -1.65%E -0.385%K -0.502%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-29 17:50
NordicBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.58%EV -3.42%E -0.633%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.08%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.34%E -0.550%K -0.719%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 17:55
Betsson🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.58%EV -3.42%E -0.633%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.08%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.34%E -0.550%K -0.719%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 17:54
Grosvenor🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -12.36%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.33%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -2.34%E -0.550%K -0.719%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-29 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -1.63%E -0.297%K -0.362%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -8.34%E -5.38%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -3.48%E -0.830%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 17:40
Coolbet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -1.63%E -0.297%K -0.362%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -8.34%E -5.38%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -3.48%E -0.830%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -15.04%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.93%E -5.80%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -3.48%E -0.830%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-29 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -15.04%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.93%E -5.80%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -3.48%E -0.830%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-29 17:45
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -7.00%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.35%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.78%E -1.41%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 17:44
BetUS🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -8.79%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.20%EV -4.79%E -2.98%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.43%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-29 17:55
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.15%E -2.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.15%E -2.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.15%E -2.95%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 17:55
SportsBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -8.79%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.97%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-29 17:44
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -6.10%E -1.16%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.58%EV -8.93%E -5.80%K -16.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-29 17:40
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -10.57%E -2.11%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -10.11%E -6.65%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-29 17:55
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.04%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -11.30%E -7.53%K -22.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-29 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -17.73%E -3.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.95%EV -11.89%E -7.98%K -24.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -8.08%E -2.02%K -2.69%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-29 17:45
Marathon Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -8.79%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.28%EV -5.38%E -3.37%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -8.54%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -3.42%E -0.633%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -4.79%E -2.98%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.80%EV -8.77%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -8.79%E -1.72%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -4.20%E -2.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.23%E -2.34%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-29 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -15.04%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -11.30%E -7.53%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -10.38%E -2.66%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-29 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -5.21%E -0.983%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.68%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-29 17:55
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.57%E -2.11%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.52%E -6.22%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.68%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-29 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.93%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61%0.5%2026-07-29 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.93%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61%0.5%2026-07-29 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.93%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61%0.5%2026-07-29 17:55

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