The School of Odds
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FC Thun v Dinamo Zagreb

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 18:00 UTC

Final: FC Thun 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV +8.24%
Edge +2.02%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.220%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.31%26.68%26.44%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.604.0830.30%27.65%27.78%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Zagreb (Visit)

Prediction 48.62%2.06fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.28%48.53%48.64%51.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.881.882.0056.82%53.27%53.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -0.363%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.121%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.31%24.78%24.93%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.654.0128.57%27.11%27.40%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 26.53%; Dinamo Zagreb (Visit): 48.62%; Draw: 24.85%. For FC Thun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV +8.24%E +2.02%K +2.67%G +0.220%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
betPARX🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 17:50
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:35
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.25%EV -14.42%E -8.19%K -18.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 17:55
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 17:50
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 17:50
BetUS🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.62%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -5.08%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:55
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-21 17:50
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 17:50
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 17:55
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-21 17:50
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 17:55
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 17:40
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -11.13%E -3.32%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -2.75%E -1.38%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.10%E -0.794%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.46%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-07-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-07-21 17:50