The School of Odds

FC Thun v Dinamo Zagreb

2026-07-21 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.348%
Kelly +0.472%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%26.41%26.79%27.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.423.403.8030%29%29%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Dinamo Zagreb (Visit)

Prediction 47.81%2.09fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.58%48.01%47.69%50.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.942.0056%52%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.53%3.92fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.64%25.58%25.52%26.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.8029%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV +1.32%E +0.348%K +0.472%G +0.006%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -12.51%E -6.83%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.11%E -2.25%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 07:05
Marathon Bet3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -2.94%E -0.809%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.83%EV -8.68%E -4.55%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.83%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 07:05
1xBet3.63I 27.55%NM 25.80%EV -3.21%E -0.885%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.83%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 07:05
Bovada3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.67%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -3.00%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 07:07
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -9.38%E -2.64%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 06:55
Betsson3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -9.38%E -2.64%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 06:55
Betr (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -3.00%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 04:55
Neds3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.56%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 04:55
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -4.28%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 04:55
888sport3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -13.21%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-18 07:05
888sport (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -13.21%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-18 07:00
Mr Green (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -13.21%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-18 07:05
SportsBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.93%EV -8.68%E -4.55%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -5.56%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-18 04:55
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -7.25%E -3.74%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -5.56%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 04:55
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -8.68%E -4.55%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -5.56%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 04:53
PlayUp3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.66%E -3.05%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 06:55
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -8.11%E -2.25%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 04:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -8.11%E -2.25%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 04:55
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.47%EV -14.90%E -8.37%K -19.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.38%EV -13.21%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-18 07:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 24.36%1.97I 50.76%NM 26.46%1.06I 94.34%NM 49.18%91.8%2026-07-18 06:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 24.36%1.97I 50.76%NM 26.46%1.06I 94.34%NM 49.18%91.8%2026-07-18 06:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 39.18%1.97I 50.76%NM 21.28%1.06I 94.34%NM 39.55%138.6%2026-07-18 04:55