L’École des cotesFrançais
FC Thun v Dinamo Zagreb
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
FC Thun (Local)
Prévision 26.53%3.77cote équitable
EV +8.24%
Avantage +2.02%
Kelly +2.67%
Croissance +0.220%
avec la cote maximale 4.08
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.31%26.68%26.44%28.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.623.604.0830.30%27.65%27.78%24.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Dinamo Zagreb (Visiteur)
Prévision 48.62%2.06cote équitable
EV -2.75%
Avantage -1.38%
Kelly -2.75%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.28%48.53%48.64%51.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.761.881.882.0056.82%53.27%53.19%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 24.85%4.02cote équitable
EV -0.363%
Avantage -0.091%
Kelly -0.121%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 4.01
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.31%24.78%24.93%26.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.693.654.0128.57%27.11%27.40%24.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (35 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV +8.24%E +2.02%K +2.67%G +0.220% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Casumo | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Grosvenor | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| TABtouch | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| betPARX | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| NordicBet | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:35 |
| Betsson | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:35 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.25%EV -14.42%E -8.19%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Bovada | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Neds | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Coolbet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| BetUS | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.62%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -5.08%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| FanDuel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| SportsBet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| PlayUp | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Bet Right | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| 888sport | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Paddy Power | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 17:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 17:40 |
| DraftKings | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -11.13%E -3.32%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -2.75%E -1.38%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.10%E -0.794%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.46%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (3)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88% | 0.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 0.8% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 0.8% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |