Idioma:Español
FC Thun v Dinamo Zagreb
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
FC Thun (Local)
Predicción 26.53%3.77momio equitativo
EV +8.24%
Ventaja +2.02%
Kelly +2.67%
Crecimiento +0.220%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.08
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.31%26.68%26.44%28.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.623.604.0830.30%27.65%27.78%24.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Dinamo Zagreb (Visitante)
Predicción 48.62%2.06momio equitativo
EV -2.75%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -2.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.28%48.53%48.64%51.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.881.882.0056.82%53.27%53.19%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 24.85%4.02momio equitativo
EV -0.363%
Ventaja -0.091%
Kelly -0.121%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.01
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.31%24.78%24.93%26.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.693.654.0128.57%27.11%27.40%24.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Thun (Local): 26.53%; Dinamo Zagreb (Visitante): 48.62%; Empate: 24.85%. Para FC Thun (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.77. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.08, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.24%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV +8.24%E +2.02%K +2.67%G +0.220% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.809%E +0.213%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -11.02%E -6.02%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -0.518%E -0.138%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -12.48%E -6.93%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.25%EV -14.42%E -8.19%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.67%E -2.92%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.62%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -5.08%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.61%E -4.01%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -9.07%E -4.85%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.59%E -4.57%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.18%E -2.66%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 17:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -10.60%E -3.14%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.73%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.31%EV -0.363%E -0.091%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -11.13%E -3.32%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -2.75%E -1.38%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.10%E -0.794%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.46%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.05%E -5.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88% | 0.5% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 0.8% | 2026-07-21 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 0.8% | 2026-07-21 17:50 |