The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Drita v FK Kauno Žalgiris

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 18:00 UTC

Final: FC Drita 2–3 FK Kauno Žalgiris

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Drita (Local)

Prediction 39.56%2.53fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.87%39.70%39.72%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.402.4545.45%42.15%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 31.17%3.21fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.87%31.10%31.11%33.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.882.893.1037.74%34.67%34.60%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.20%29.17%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.2633.33%31.66%31.25%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -4.87%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-14 14:58
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -8.04%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -4.87%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-14 16:09
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 15:00
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:49
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.09%E -1.26%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-14 16:50
BetUS2.41I 41.49%NM 38.96%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.61%EV -7.41%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.43%EV -6.63%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 16:49
Marathon Bet2.41I 41.49%NM 38.66%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.48%EV -7.73%E -2.61%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -8.68%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-14 17:04
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.07%E -2.11%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -4.87%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 09:19
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -5.07%E -2.11%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -14.27%E -5.19%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -7.80%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -5.07%E -2.11%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -14.27%E -5.19%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -7.80%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-14 16:50
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 09:17
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -8.04%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-14 17:05
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -8.04%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-14 09:19
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.76%EV -8.23%E -3.55%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.80%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 17:05
Betsson2.32I 43.10%NM 39.76%EV -8.23%E -3.55%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.80%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 17:04
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.93%EV -8.23%E -3.55%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -17.39%E -6.56%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -10.73%E -3.52%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-14 16:50
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-14 16:49
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.22%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-14 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.22%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-14 17:04
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -8.04%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-14 17:14
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -12.71%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-14 14:59
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 41.72%EV -12.19%E -5.49%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -4.58%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-14 11:29
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 41.72%EV -12.19%E -5.49%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -4.58%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-14 11:30
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.32%EV -12.98%E -5.90%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -10.73%E -3.52%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-14 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-07-14 17:15