The School of Odds

FC Drita v FK Kauno Žalgiris

2026-07-14 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Drita (Local)

Prediction 45.22%2.21fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%45.25%45.32%46.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.052.0954%50%49%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.740%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%26.32%26.20%26.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.553.7030%28%28%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.03%28.43%28.48%29.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.203.4032%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -5.49%E -2.63%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.82%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 12:55
LowVig.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -5.49%E -2.63%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.82%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 12:55
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -5.94%E -2.86%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 11:50
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -5.94%E -2.86%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 11:49
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -2.74%E -0.740%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 11:40
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.99%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.12%E -0.918%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 11:30
Marathon Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.97%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 12:35
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 11:39
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -6.68%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -10.24%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 11:39
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -8.66%E -4.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.56%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.82%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 11:50
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.56%E -4.78%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.82%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 11:40
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -10.92%E -5.54%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -5.97%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 12:14
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -11.82%E -6.06%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.67%E -3.76%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 11:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -11.82%E -6.06%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.67%E -3.76%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 11:15
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.82%E -6.06%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.67%E -3.76%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-10 10:50
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 46.76%EV -16.35%E -8.84%K -19.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.21%EV -13.25%E -4.02%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%EV -8.82%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-10 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-10 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-10 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-10 13:00