Language:English
FC Ararat-Armenia v NK Celje
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Ararat-Armenia (Local)
Prediction 32.33%3.09fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.847%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.28%32.28%32.30%34.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.802.803.0439.22%35.68%35.71%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
NK Celje (Visit)
Prediction 38.60%2.59fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.45%38.64%38.53%39.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.432.5243.48%41.20%41.15%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.07%3.44fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.08%29.17%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.253.3733.33%31.07%30.77%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ararat-Armenia (Local): 32.33%; NK Celje (Visit): 38.60%; Draw: 29.07%. For FC Ararat-Armenia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.04, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.28%EV -1.73%E -0.569%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.46%EV -6.97%E -2.89%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -3.02%E -1.01%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.20%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.04%EV -4.65%E -1.42%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -3.02%E -1.01%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -4.64%E -1.57%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 15:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.64%E -1.57%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.51%EV -5.61%E -1.92%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.28%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -6.90%E -2.40%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -9.88%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.82%EV -8.19%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -9.16%E -3.26%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -2.03%E -0.603%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.12%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.88%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.21%E -4.87%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-04 15:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.21%E -4.87%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -10.78%E -3.91%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.61%EV -3.49%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.32%EV -3.49%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.34%E -5.41%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.34%E -5.41%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -17.57%E -6.89%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.49%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.39% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
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