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FC Ararat-Armenia v NK Celje
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
FC Ararat-Armenia (Local)
Predicción 32.33%3.09momio equitativo
EV -1.73%
Ventaja -0.569%
Kelly -0.847%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.28%32.28%32.30%34.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.802.803.0439.22%35.68%35.71%32.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
NK Celje (Visitante)
Predicción 38.60%2.59momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.45%38.64%38.53%39.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.432.432.5243.48%41.20%41.15%39.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.07%3.44momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -0.603%
Kelly -0.857%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.37
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.97%29.08%29.17%30.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.223.253.3733.33%31.07%30.77%29.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Ararat-Armenia (Local): 32.33%; NK Celje (Visitante): 38.60%; Empate: 29.07%. Para FC Ararat-Armenia (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.09. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.04, con un valor esperado de -1.73%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.28%EV -1.73%E -0.569%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.46%EV -6.97%E -2.89%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -3.02%E -1.01%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.20%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.04%EV -4.65%E -1.42%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -3.02%E -1.01%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -4.64%E -1.57%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 15:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.64%E -1.57%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.51%EV -5.61%E -1.92%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.28%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.25%E -2.16%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -6.90%E -2.40%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.87%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -9.88%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.82%EV -8.19%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -9.16%E -3.26%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.81%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -2.03%E -0.603%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.12%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.88%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.21%E -4.87%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-04 15:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.49%E -3.39%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.21%E -4.87%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -10.78%E -3.91%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.61%EV -3.49%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.32%EV -3.49%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.72%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.34%E -5.41%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.34%E -5.41%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -6.19%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.52%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-04 15:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -17.57%E -6.89%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.49%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -8.43%E -2.68%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-04 15:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.39% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 15:55 |