Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid v Manchester City

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 33.69%2.97fair odd
EV -0.943%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.486%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.64%33.74%33.62%34.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.9438.46%36.30%36.36%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 39.99%2.50fair odd
EV -0.824%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.557%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.98%39.97%40.01%41.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4845.45%42.76%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.32%3.80fair odd
EV +2.64%
Edge +0.676%
Kelly +0.909%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.01%26.28%26.37%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.603.603.9032.26%27.77%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 33.69%; Manchester City (Visit): 39.99%; Draw: 26.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:49
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:49
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.51%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:49
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.51%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:49
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.61%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.66%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 13:50
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 13:49
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 14:05
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.61%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 14:59
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 13:50
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 15:02
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 33.51%EV -0.943%E -0.321%K -0.486%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.72%EV -0.824%E -0.332%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.77%EV -3.15%E -0.857%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.5%2026-02-27 15:00
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.02%E -0.826%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-27 14:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-27 13:50
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 13:49
GTbets🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.42%EV -6.67%E -2.41%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.24%EV -2.82%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.34%EV -4.73%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 16:10
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 16:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 13:49
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 14:44
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 13:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.43%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -10.82%E -4.85%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 13:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -10.82%E -4.85%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.45%EV -5.79%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 14:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 14:59
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 13:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:04
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.64%EV -1.62%E -0.554%K -0.842%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.21%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.15%EV -7.63%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 05:59
Caesars🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 13:46
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:05
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:04
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 13:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-27 13:48
Suprabets🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.20%EV -4.99%E -1.77%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.67%EV -5.62%E -2.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 21:02
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 12:59
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 13:50
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 14:04
Fliff🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:44
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 12:55
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-02-27 13:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.72%E -4.47%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.90%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -13.15%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-27 16:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -18.42%E -5.94%K -8.77%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-27 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 33.31%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%6.5%2026-02-27 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29