L’École des cotes

Real Madrid v Manchester City

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Prévision 33.69%2.97cote équitable
EV -0.943%
Avantage -0.321%
Kelly -0.486%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.64%33.74%33.62%34.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.752.752.9438.46%36.30%36.36%34.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Manchester City (Visiteur)

Prévision 39.99%2.50cote équitable
EV -0.824%
Avantage -0.332%
Kelly -0.557%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.48

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.98%39.97%40.01%41.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.342.352.4845.45%42.76%42.55%40.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.32%3.80cote équitable
EV +2.64%
Avantage +0.676%
Kelly +0.909%
Croissance +0.024%

avec la cote maximale 3.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.01%26.28%26.37%27.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.603.603.9032.26%27.77%27.78%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:50
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 34.27%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV +2.64%E +0.676%K +0.909%G +0.024%2.4%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:50
betPARX2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:49
Bally Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:49
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.51%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:49
TABtouch2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.51%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:49
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.61%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.66%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 13:50
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 13:49
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 14:05
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.61%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 14:59
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 13:50
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.973%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 15:02
1xBet2.94I 34.01%NM 33.51%EV -0.943%E -0.321%K -0.486%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.72%EV -0.824%E -0.332%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.77%EV -3.15%E -0.857%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.5%2026-02-27 15:00
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.02%E -0.826%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-27 14:59
Codere (IT)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-27 13:50
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 13:49
GTbets2.77I 36.10%NM 34.42%EV -6.67%E -2.41%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.24%EV -2.82%E -1.16%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.34%EV -4.73%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 16:10
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 16:09
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 14:04
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 13:49
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 14:44
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 13:50
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 13:48
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.43%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 14:44
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -10.82%E -4.85%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 13:49
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -10.82%E -4.85%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 13:49
Unibet (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.45%EV -5.79%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 13:50
LowVig.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 14:59
BetOnline.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 14:59
theScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 13:49
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:04
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.58%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:04
Pinnacle2.92I 34.25%NM 32.64%EV -1.62%E -0.554%K -0.842%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.21%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.15%EV -7.63%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 05:59
Caesars2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 13:46
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:05
William Hill2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:04
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:05
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 14:04
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 15:40
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 13:49
Betclic (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-27 13:48
Suprabets2.82I 35.46%NM 33.20%EV -4.99%E -1.77%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.67%EV -5.62%E -2.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 21:02
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 12:59
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 13:50
BetUS2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 14:04
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -10.71%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:44
BoyleSports2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.34%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 12:55
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 14:30
Parions Sport (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -10.52%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-02-27 13:49
NetBet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.72%E -4.47%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.90%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -13.15%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-27 16:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -12.40%E -4.77%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -18.42%E -5.94%K -8.77%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-27 13:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 33.31%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%6.5%2026-02-27 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%12.2%2026-02-27 15:29